ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
63-75 | Road
11
ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
68-70 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Chris Roycroft
#56 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Nathan Church
#27 | Center Field| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Roycroft | None-None | 6.75 | -- | 1.2 | 1 |
| Nathan Church | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
6.75
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
1.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
1
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
ATHLETICS
46%
CARDINALS
54%
ATHLETICS
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
70%
Under 0
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Athletics)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATH -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)
ATH By 1-2 runs
19.7%
ATH By 3-4 runs
16.6%
STL By 1-2 runs
15.9%
STL By 3-4 runs
10.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Athletics
5.34
ATHLETICS
St. Louis
4.2
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
Athletics
3
ATHLETICS
St. Louis
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Athletics
Win
46% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cardinals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Athletics (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.1
C
Sim
Cardinals (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.5
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 14, 2026
STL @ ATH
5 - 4
May 13, 2026
STL @ ATH
2 - 6
May 12, 2026
STL @ ATH
6 - 4
Sep 3, 2025
ATH @ STL
1 - 5
Sep 2, 2025
ATH @ STL
1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Athletics
ATH
vs
St. Louis
STL
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲
4.44
.245
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.313
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.719
▲
OPS
.691
194
▲
Home Runs
167
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+17.0% more
Athletics: 0.7
vs
St. Louis: 0.5
Hits (L5)
+15.0% more
Athletics: 8.3
vs
St. Louis: 7.1
Home Runs (Season)
+13.9% more
Athletics: 194.0
vs
St. Louis: 167.0
OPS (Season)
+2.8%
Athletics: 71.9%
vs
St. Louis: 69.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATH Score
5.3
11
STL Score
4.2
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.7
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.1 / 8.3
8.0 / 17.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 0.8
1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
8.2 / 8.5
6.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
12.7 / 13.6
12.0 / 31.0
Walks
4.3 / 3.9
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
ATH
STL
ATH
ML
53%
85-74
59%
95-67
52%
84-77
54%
87-74
ATS
56%
89-70
52%
84-78
53%
85-76
50%
81-80
TTL
46%
68-81-10
54%
84-73-5
50%
76-75-10
42%
66-90-5
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