TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
66-69 | Road
7
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
53-82 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Ian Seymour
#61 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Orlando Ribalta
#64 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Seymour | None-None | 2.97 | -- | 5.0 | 8 |
| Orlando Ribalta | None-None | 5.79 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.97 Ldr
ERA
5.79
--
WHIP
--
5.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
8 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
60%
NATIONALS
40%
RAYS
--
NATIONALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TB -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
TB By 1-2 runs
19.7%
TB By 3-4 runs
17.1%
WSH By 1-2 runs
15.4%
WSH By 3-4 runs
9.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
4.7
TAMPA BAY
Washington
3.36
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Washington
5
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rays
Win
60% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nationals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rays (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.3
D
Sim
Nationals (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.1
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 21, 2026
WSH @ TB
3 - 4
Jun 20, 2026
WSH @ TB
4 - 3
Jun 19, 2026
WSH @ TB
2 - 5
Aug 31, 2025
TB @ WSH
7 - 4
Aug 30, 2025
TB @ WSH
4 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Washington
WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.54
Runs / Game
▲
5.07
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.321
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.423
.728
OPS
▲
.744
169
Home Runs
▲
210
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+78.2% more
Tampa Bay: 1.7
vs
Washington: 0.4
Total Bases (L5)
+28.2% more
Tampa Bay: 13.5
vs
Washington: 9.7
Strikeouts (L5)
+21.2% more
Tampa Bay: 10.5
vs
Washington: 8.3
Walks (L5)
+19.7% more
Tampa Bay: 3.8
vs
Washington: 3.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
4.7
7
WSH Score
3.4
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.1
2.0 / 2.0
Hits
7.2 / 7.2
7.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 1.7
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.3 / 10.5
11.0 / 16.0
Total Bases
9.7 / 13.5
8.0 / 12.0
Walks
3.1 / 3.8
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
TB
WSH
TB
ML
57%
92-69
58%
95-68
54%
87-74
58%
95-68
ATS
58%
93-68
60%
97-66
57%
91-70
55%
90-73
TTL
50%
77-78-6
47%
73-81-9
42%
65-90-6
51%
78-75-10
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