MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
85-52 | Road
4
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
78-58 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brandon Woodruff
#53 | Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Louis Varland
#77 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Woodruff | None-None | 3.69 | -- | 4.1 | 3 |
| Louis Varland | None-None | 2.80 | -- | 1.2 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.69
ERA
Ldr 2.80
--
WHIP
--
4.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.2
3
K (Strikeouts)
3
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
55%
BLUE JAYS
45%
BREWERS
--
BLUE JAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
MILWAUKEE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 points (Milwaukee)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIL -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIL)
MIL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
MIL By 3-4 runs
18.0%
TOR By 1-2 runs
14.2%
TOR By 3-4 runs
8.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
6.81
MILWAUKEE
Toronto
5.03
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
3
MILWAUKEE
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Brewers
Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blue Jays
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Brewers (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.8
A
Sim
Blue Jays (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 11.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 16, 2026
TOR @ MIL
1 - 2
Apr 15, 2026
TOR @ MIL
1 - 2
Apr 14, 2026
TOR @ MIL
9 - 7
Aug 31, 2025
MIL @ TOR
4 - 8
Aug 30, 2025
MIL @ TOR
4 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee
MIL
vs
Toronto
TOR
162
Games Played
162
5.14
▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.341
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.403
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.743
▲
OPS
.692
154
▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+24.6% more
Milwaukee: 1.4
vs
Toronto: 1.1
Total Bases (L5)
+23.3% more
Milwaukee: 16.6
vs
Toronto: 12.7
Runs per Game (Season)
+22.2% more
Milwaukee: 5.1
vs
Toronto: 4.0
Hits (L5)
+18.5% more
Milwaukee: 9.8
vs
Toronto: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
6.8
4
TOR Score
5.0
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.4
2.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.0 / 9.8
13.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
1.1 / 1.4
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.7 / 8.5
7.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
12.7 / 16.6
16.0 / 21.0
Walks
2.7 / 2.0
0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
MIL
TOR
MIL
ML
46%
74-87
62%
101-61
50%
80-80
52%
84-78
ATS
56%
90-71
58%
94-68
49%
79-81
48%
78-84
TTL
51%
80-76-5
40%
62-92-8
45%
70-85-5
50%
77-77-8
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