MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
64-72 | Road
5
NEW YORK
METSNYM
73-63 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Calvin Faucher
#53 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Kodai Senga
#34 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Faucher | None-None | 3.21 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Kodai Senga | None-None | 3.02 | -- | 4.2 | 6 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.21
ERA
Ldr 3.02
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 4.2
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 6
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
43%
METS
57%
MARLINS
--
METS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
75%
Under 0
25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
MIA By 1-2 runs
17.1%
MIA By 3-4 runs
11.6%
NYM By 1-2 runs
19.3%
NYM By 3-4 runs
15.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
5.57
MIAMI
New York
6.23
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Miami
4
MIAMI
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mets
Loss
57% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mets (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.7
D
Sim
Mets (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 11.8
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 9, 2026
NYM @ MIA
15 - 14
Sep 8, 2026
NYM @ MIA
7 - 5
Sep 7, 2026
NYM @ MIA
9 - 4
Aug 2, 2026
MIA @ NYM
2 - 0
Aug 1, 2026
MIA @ NYM
6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
New York
NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.41
▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.249
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.727
▲
OPS
.705
168
Home Runs
▲
204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+260.0% more
New York: 3.2
vs
Miami: 0.6
Total Bases (L5)
+50.0% more
New York: 24.8
vs
Miami: 16.6
Home Runs (Season)
+21.4% more
New York: 204.0
vs
Miami: 168.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+18.1% more
New York: 9.0
vs
Miami: 7.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
5.6
5
NYM Score
6.2
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.8
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
12.5 / 11.2
5.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
3.2 / 0.6
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.0 / 7.6
10.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
24.8 / 16.6
7.0 / 16.0
Walks
3.0 / 5.4
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
MIA
NYM
MIA
ML
50%
79-80
48%
78-84
48%
76-83
55%
88-72
ATS
58%
93-66
56%
91-71
49%
78-81
54%
86-74
TTL
55%
80-66-13
56%
88-69-5
51%
74-72-13
53%
82-73-5
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