CHICAGO
CUBSCHC
78-58 | Road
5
COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
38-98 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Caleb Thielbar
#24 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Juan Mejia
#47 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Thielbar | None-None | 2.03 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Juan Mejia | None-None | 3.71 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.03 Ldr
ERA
3.71
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
78%
ROCKIES
22%
CUBS
--
ROCKIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
70%
Under 0
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Chicago)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHC -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)
CHC By 1-2 runs
19.4%
CHC By 3-4 runs
15.7%
COL By 1-2 runs
16.9%
COL By 3-4 runs
11.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
4.06
CHICAGO
Colorado
3.3
COLORADO
Simulated Score
Chicago
3
CHICAGO
Colorado
6
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cubs
Loss
78% Win Prob
B
Sim
Rockies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cubs (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.8
C
Sim
Rockies (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.4
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 17, 2026
COL @ CHC
6 - 8
Jun 16, 2026
COL @ CHC
5 - 2
Jun 15, 2026
COL @ CHC
4 - 5
Jun 11, 2026
CHC @ COL
9 - 3
Jun 10, 2026
CHC @ COL
2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHC
vs
Colorado
COL
2
Games Played
▲
162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.64
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲
.254
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.322
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.417
.374
OPS
▲
.739
0
Home Runs
▲
180
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+39.2% more
Chicago: 1.4
vs
Colorado: 0.9
Total Bases (L5)
+24.8% more
Chicago: 17.5
vs
Colorado: 13.2
Strikeouts (L5)
+18.0% more
Chicago: 6.7
vs
Colorado: 5.5
Hits (L5)
+14.2% more
Chicago: 9.6
vs
Colorado: 8.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHC Score
4.1
5
COL Score
3.3
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.2 / 9.6
11.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.4
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
5.5 / 6.7
12.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
13.2 / 17.5
17.0 / 12.0
Walks
4.5 / 2.3
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC
Advantage
89-75-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8
ATS +/-:
COL
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5%
Total +/-: +1.0
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
CHC
COL
CHC
ML
60%
97-64
58%
93-68
55%
88-73
51%
82-79
ATS
60%
97-64
61%
97-63-1
52%
83-78
47%
75-85-1
TTL
60%
93-62-6
52%
81-74-6
50%
77-78-6
46%
72-83-6
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