TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
70-67 | Road
9
ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
63-74 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob deGrom
#48 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Elvis Alvarado
#37 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob deGrom | None-None | 2.69 | -- | 5.0 | 6 |
| Elvis Alvarado | None-None | 3.69 | -- | 0.1 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.69 Ldr
ERA
3.69
--
WHIP
--
5.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.1
6 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
55%
ATHLETICS
45%
RANGERS
--
ATHLETICS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
56%
Under 0
44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.6
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.6 points (Texas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TEX -2.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)
TEX By 1-2 runs
19.0%
TEX By 3-4 runs
19.2%
ATH By 1-2 runs
11.8%
ATH By 3-4 runs
6.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas
6.72
TEXAS
Athletics
4.13
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
Texas
3
TEXAS
Athletics
6
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rangers
Win
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
Athletics
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rangers (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.6
D
Sim
Athletics (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 2, 2026
ATH @ TEX
9 - 2
Sep 1, 2026
ATH @ TEX
5 - 8
Aug 31, 2026
ATH @ TEX
1 - 8
Aug 16, 2026
TEX @ ATH
2 - 5
Aug 15, 2026
TEX @ ATH
5 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas
TEX
vs
Athletics
ATH
162
Games Played
162
4.15
Runs / Game
▲
4.31
.242
Avg (AVG)
▲
.245
.317
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.713
OPS
▲
.719
183
Home Runs
▲
194
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+44.9% more
Texas: 2.3
vs
Athletics: 1.2
Hits (L5)
+40.4% more
Texas: 13.4
vs
Athletics: 8.0
Total Bases (L5)
+38.9% more
Texas: 22.8
vs
Athletics: 13.9
Strikeouts (L5)
+12.3% more
Texas: 8.2
vs
Athletics: 7.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TEX Score
6.7
9
ATH Score
4.1
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.0 / 0.0
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.0 / 13.4
9.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 2.3
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.2 / 8.2
11.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
13.9 / 22.8
13.0 / 18.0
Walks
2.4 / 2.1
7.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
TEX
ATH
TEX
ML
59%
95-67
53%
86-76
54%
87-74
57%
91-70
ATS
52%
84-78
57%
92-70
50%
81-80
61%
98-63
TTL
54%
84-73-5
53%
78-70-14
42%
66-90-5
55%
81-66-14
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