TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
65-69 | Road
4
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
53-81 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan Baker
#47 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jake Irvin
#27 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Baker | None-None | 3.95 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Jake Irvin | None-None | 5.42 | -- | 6.0 | 3 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.95 Ldr
ERA
5.42
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 3
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
59%
NATIONALS
41%
RAYS
--
NATIONALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
40%
Under 0
60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TB -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
TB By 1-2 runs
19.7%
TB By 3-4 runs
17.7%
WSH By 1-2 runs
14.7%
WSH By 3-4 runs
8.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
4.95
TAMPA BAY
Washington
3.33
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Washington
5
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rays
Win
59% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nationals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rays (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.6
D
Sim
Nationals (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jun 21, 2026
WSH @ TB
3 - 4
Jun 20, 2026
WSH @ TB
4 - 3
Jun 19, 2026
WSH @ TB
2 - 5
Aug 31, 2025
TB @ WSH
7 - 4
Aug 30, 2025
TB @ WSH
4 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Washington
WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.54
Runs / Game
▲
5.07
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.321
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.423
.728
OPS
▲
.744
169
Home Runs
▲
210
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+64.7% more
Tampa Bay: 1.6
vs
Washington: 0.6
Total Bases (L5)
+18.4% more
Tampa Bay: 14.8
vs
Washington: 12.1
Batting Avg (Season)
+1.2%
Tampa Bay: 25.8%
vs
Washington: 24.6%
On-Base Pct (Season)
+0.5%
Tampa Bay: 32.6%
vs
Washington: 32.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
5.0
4
WSH Score
3.3
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.2
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.8 / 8.3
4.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 1.6
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.9 / 9.8
5.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
12.1 / 14.8
5.0 / 11.0
Walks
4.1 / 3.2
1.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
TB
WSH
TB
ML
57%
92-69
58%
95-68
54%
87-74
58%
95-68
ATS
58%
93-68
60%
97-66
57%
91-70
55%
90-73
TTL
50%
77-78-6
47%
73-81-9
42%
65-90-6
51%
78-75-10
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