Home / MLB Projections MLB / Marlins @ Mets MIA @ NYM

MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

63-72  |  Road

11
FINAL
Sat, Aug 30 • 4:10 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

73-62  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Tyler Phillips
STARTING PITCHER

Tyler Phillips

#30 | Starting Pitcher
@
Luis Torrens
STARTING PITCHER

Luis Torrens

#13 | Catcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tyler Phillips None-None 3.20 -- 1.0 1
Luis Torrens None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
3.20 ERA --
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
1 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
43%
📊
METS
57%
MARLINS --
METS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 85%
Under 0 15%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (New York)
MarlinsMIA (-3.5) 0 MetsNYM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Marlins Cover

38.5%

Mets Cover

61.5%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

MIA By 1-2 runs

15.9%

MIA By 3-4 runs

10.1%

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.7%

NYM By 3-4 runs

16.7%

AI Model Projected Score
4.97
MIAMI
6.14
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
3
MIAMI
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mets Loss
57% Win Prob
D
Sim Mets Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mets (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.2
D
Sim Mets (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 11.1
A
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 9, 2026 NYM @ MIA 15 - 14
Sep 8, 2026 NYM @ MIA 7 - 5
Sep 7, 2026 NYM @ MIA 9 - 4
Aug 2, 2026 MIA @ NYM 2 - 0
Aug 1, 2026 MIA @ NYM 6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami MIA
vs
New York NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.41 ▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.249 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.400 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.727 ▲
OPS
.705
168
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +190.0% more
New York: 2.8 vs Miami: 0.9
Errors (L5) +109.0% more
New York: 1.4 vs Miami: 0.3
Total Bases (L5) +51.6% more
New York: 23.2 vs Miami: 15.3
Hits (L5) +24.3% more
New York: 12.8 vs Miami: 10.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 5.0 11
NYM Score 6.1 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.4 / 0.3 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 12.8 / 10.3 12.0 / 13.0
Home Runs 2.8 / 0.9 4.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.5 / 7.5 10.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 23.2 / 15.3 28.0 / 19.0
Walks 2.0 / 5.5 5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
10%MONEY90%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
4%MONEY96%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
MIA
NYM
MIA
ML
50% 79-80
48% 78-84
48% 76-83
55% 88-72
ATS
58% 93-66
56% 91-71
49% 78-81
54% 86-74
TTL
55% 80-66-13
56% 88-69-5
51% 74-72-13
53% 82-73-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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