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DETROIT

TIGERSDET

79-57  |  Road

1
FINAL
Sat, Aug 30 • 7:15 PM ET
Kauffman Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

69-66  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Brenan Hanifee
STARTING PITCHER

Brenan Hanifee

#75 | Relief Pitcher
@
Lucas Erceg
STARTING PITCHER

Lucas Erceg

#60 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Brenan Hanifee None-None 3.23 -- 0.1 1
Lucas Erceg None-None 2.60 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
3.23 ERA Ldr 2.60
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
57%
📊
ROYALS
43%
TIGERS --
ROYALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (Kansas City)
TigersDET (-3.5) 0 RoyalsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

47.1%

Royals Cover

52.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

DET By 1-2 runs

17.9%

DET By 3-4 runs

12.7%

KC By 1-2 runs

18.9%

KC By 3-4 runs

14.4%

AI Model Projected Score
4.65
DETROIT
4.94
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
3
DETROIT
5
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Royals Win
43% Win Prob
D
Sim Royals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Royals (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.3
C
Sim Royals (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.6
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 23, 2026 DET @ KC 7 - 11
Aug 22, 2026 DET @ KC 1 - 3
Aug 21, 2026 DET @ KC 2 - 5
Jul 26, 2026 KC @ DET 5 - 4
Jul 25, 2026 KC @ DET 3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit DET
vs
Kansas City KC
162
Games Played
162
4.46 ▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.241
Avg (AVG)
▲ .247
.320 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.720 ▲
OPS
.718
181 ▲
Home Runs
170
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +27.7% more
Kansas City: 1.4 vs Detroit: 1.1
Total Bases (L5) +27.5% more
Kansas City: 16.7 vs Detroit: 13.1
Hits (L5) +22.2% more
Kansas City: 10.0 vs Detroit: 8.2
Batting Avg (Season) +0.6%
Kansas City: 24.7% vs Detroit: 24.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 4.7 1
KC Score 4.9 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 1.1 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 10.0 / 8.2 6.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 1.1 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.1 / 7.8 4.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 16.7 / 13.1 12.0 / 8.0
Walks 2.7 / 3.3 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
58%MONEY42%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
73%MONEY27%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
22%MONEY78%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET Advantage
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
DET
KC
DET
ML
55% 89-72
54% 86-73
56% 90-70
54% 87-73
ATS
57% 91-70
64% 101-58
58% 93-67
57% 91-69
TTL
58% 90-64-7
46% 69-81-9
54% 83-70-7
46% 69-81-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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