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BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

60-75  |  Road

11
FINAL
Sat, Aug 30 • 7:15 PM ET
Oracle Park
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

67-68  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Trevor Rogers
STARTING PITCHER

Trevor Rogers

#28 | Starting Pitcher
@
Christian Koss
STARTING PITCHER

Christian Koss

#50 | Shortstop
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Trevor Rogers None-None 1.39 -- 7.0 5
Christian Koss None-None 0.00 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
1.39 ERA Ldr 0.00
-- WHIP --
7.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
5 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
45%
📊
GIANTS
55%
ORIOLES --
GIANTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 42%
Under 0 58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (San Francisco)
OriolesBAL (-3.5) 0 GiantsSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Orioles Cover

41.3%

Giants Cover

58.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SF -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

BAL By 1-2 runs

16.6%

BAL By 3-4 runs

11.0%

SF By 1-2 runs

19.5%

SF By 3-4 runs

16.0%

AI Model Projected Score
3.99
BALTIMORE
4.87
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
3
BALTIMORE
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Giants Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim Giants Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Giants (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.9
B
Sim Giants (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.9
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 12, 2026 SF @ BAL 2 - 6
Apr 11, 2026 SF @ BAL 2 - 6
Apr 10, 2026 SF @ BAL 6 - 3
Aug 31, 2025 BAL @ SF 2 - 13
Aug 30, 2025 BAL @ SF 11 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore BAL
vs
San Francisco SF
161
Games Played
▲ 162
4.46 ▲
Runs / Game
4.13
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.314 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .400
.711 ▲
OPS
.706
199 ▲
Home Runs
178
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +135.0% more
San Francisco: 2.2 vs Baltimore: 0.8
Total Bases (L5) +54.2% more
San Francisco: 20.0 vs Baltimore: 13.0
Hits (L5) +44.2% more
San Francisco: 11.9 vs Baltimore: 8.3
Walks (L5) +13.2% more
San Francisco: 2.7 vs Baltimore: 2.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAL Score 4.0 11
SF Score 4.9 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 1.2 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 11.9 / 8.3 5.0 / 13.0
Home Runs 2.2 / 0.8 1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 8.4 / 8.4 10.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 20.0 / 13.0 8.0 / 28.0
Walks 2.7 / 2.3 4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
47%MONEY53%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL Advantage
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
BAL
SF
BAL
ML
49% 79-81
53% 83-73
53% 85-75
57% 90-69
ATS
62% 100-60
61% 95-60-1
52% 83-77
57% 90-68-1
TTL
55% 82-68-10
54% 81-70-5
46% 68-81-11
51% 78-75-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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