Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cubs @ Rockies CHC @ COL

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

77-58  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sat, Aug 30 • 8:10 PM ET
Coors Field
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

38-97  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Javier Assad
STARTING PITCHER

Javier Assad

#72 | Relief Pitcher
@
Juan Mejia
STARTING PITCHER

Juan Mejia

#47 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Javier Assad None-None 4.05 -- 6.0 1
Juan Mejia None-None 3.78 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
4.05 ERA Ldr 3.78
-- WHIP --
6.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
77%
📊
ROCKIES
23%
CUBS --
ROCKIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 72%
Under 0 28%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Chicago)
CubsCHC (-3.5) 0 RockiesCOL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cubs Cover

61.0%

Rockies Cover

39.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHC -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.7%

CHC By 3-4 runs

16.6%

COL By 1-2 runs

16.0%

COL By 3-4 runs

10.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4.16
CHICAGO
3.04
COLORADO
Simulated Score
3
CHICAGO
4
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cubs Win
77% Win Prob
B
Sim Rockies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cubs (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.1
C
Sim Rockies (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.2
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 17, 2026 COL @ CHC 6 - 8
Jun 16, 2026 COL @ CHC 5 - 2
Jun 15, 2026 COL @ CHC 4 - 5
Jun 11, 2026 CHC @ COL 9 - 3
Jun 10, 2026 CHC @ COL 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHC
vs
Colorado COL
2
Games Played
▲ 162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.64
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲ .254
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .322
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .417
.374
OPS
▲ .739
0
Home Runs
▲ 180
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +61.0% more
Chicago: 0.9 vs Colorado: 0.3
Home Runs (L5) +39.1% more
Chicago: 2.2 vs Colorado: 1.3
Strikeouts (L5) +28.6% more
Chicago: 8.0 vs Colorado: 5.7
Total Bases (L5) +22.8% more
Chicago: 19.7 vs Colorado: 15.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHC Score 4.2 4
COL Score 3.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.9 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.9 / 9.9 7.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 2.2 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 5.7 / 8.0 5.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 15.2 / 19.7 9.0 / 13.0
Walks 3.7 / 2.4 6.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
94%TICKETS6%
94%MONEY6%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
97%MONEY3%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
92%MONEY8%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
COL Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
CHC
COL
CHC
ML
60% 97-64
58% 93-68
55% 88-73
51% 82-79
ATS
60% 97-64
61% 97-63-1
52% 83-78
47% 75-85-1
TTL
60% 93-62-6
52% 81-74-6
50% 77-78-6
46% 72-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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