MILWAUKEE
BREWERSMIL
83-52 | Road
7
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
78-56 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Abner Uribe
#45 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Louis Varland
#77 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abner Uribe | None-None | 1.68 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Louis Varland | None-None | 2.88 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.68 Ldr
ERA
2.88
--
WHIP
--
1.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.1
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
BREWERS
53%
BLUE JAYS
47%
BREWERS
--
BLUE JAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
12.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
58%
Under 0
42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
MIL By 1-2 runs
17.5%
MIL By 3-4 runs
12.2%
TOR By 1-2 runs
19.1%
TOR By 3-4 runs
14.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Milwaukee
5.95
MILWAUKEE
Toronto
6.42
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Milwaukee
3
MILWAUKEE
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays
Loss
47% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blue Jays
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.5
B
Sim
Blue Jays (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 12.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 16, 2026
TOR @ MIL
1 - 2
Apr 15, 2026
TOR @ MIL
1 - 2
Apr 14, 2026
TOR @ MIL
9 - 7
Aug 31, 2025
MIL @ TOR
4 - 8
Aug 30, 2025
MIL @ TOR
4 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Milwaukee
MIL
vs
Toronto
TOR
162
Games Played
162
5.14
▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.341
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.403
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.743
▲
OPS
.692
154
▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+100.8% more
Toronto: 2.4
vs
Milwaukee: 1.2
Errors (L5)
+65.0% more
Toronto: 0.9
vs
Milwaukee: 0.3
Total Bases (L5)
+21.6% more
Toronto: 20.1
vs
Milwaukee: 16.5
Walks (L5)
+13.4% more
Toronto: 3.3
vs
Milwaukee: 2.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIL Score
6.0
7
TOR Score
6.4
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.9 / 0.3
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.8 / 9.9
4.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
2.4 / 1.2
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
9.1 / 8.7
12.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
20.1 / 16.5
5.0 / 16.0
Walks
3.3 / 2.9
4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
Advantage
106-60-0
(63.9%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
Advantage
(52.4%)
Margin: 1.3
ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
73-88-5
O: 45.3% / U: 54.7%
Total +/-: +0.8
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
MIL
TOR
MIL
ML
46%
74-87
62%
101-61
50%
80-80
52%
84-78
ATS
56%
90-71
58%
94-68
49%
79-81
48%
78-84
TTL
51%
80-76-5
40%
62-92-8
45%
70-85-5
50%
77-77-8
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