Home / MLB Projections MLB / Marlins @ Mets MIA @ NYM

MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

63-71  |  Road

9
FINAL
Fri, Aug 29 • 7:10 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

72-62  |  Home

19
Probable Pitchers
Tyler Zuber
STARTING PITCHER

Tyler Zuber

#55 | Relief Pitcher
@
Luis Torrens
STARTING PITCHER

Luis Torrens

#13 | Catcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tyler Zuber None-None 11.25 -- 1.0 1
Luis Torrens None-None 54.00 -- 0.1 --
None-None W-L None-None
11.25 Ldr ERA 54.00
-- WHIP --
1.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.1
1 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
43%
📊
METS
57%
MARLINS --
METS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 80%
Under 0 20%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Miami)
MarlinsMIA (-3.5) 0 MetsNYM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Marlins Cover

58.8%

Mets Cover

41.2%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around MIA -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

MIA By 1-2 runs

19.5%

MIA By 3-4 runs

16.0%

NYM By 1-2 runs

16.6%

NYM By 3-4 runs

10.9%

AI Model Projected Score
5.71
MIAMI
4.82
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
3
MIAMI
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Marlins Loss
43% Win Prob
D
Sim Mets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Marlins (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.9
D
Sim Mets (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.5
A
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 9, 2026 NYM @ MIA 15 - 14
Sep 8, 2026 NYM @ MIA 7 - 5
Sep 7, 2026 NYM @ MIA 9 - 4
Aug 2, 2026 MIA @ NYM 2 - 0
Aug 1, 2026 MIA @ NYM 6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami MIA
vs
New York NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.41 ▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.249 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.326 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.400 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.727 ▲
OPS
.705
168
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +47.7% more
Miami: 4.8 vs New York: 2.5
Strikeouts (L5) +10.1% more
Miami: 8.7 vs New York: 7.8
Runs per Game (Season) +2.3% more
Miami: 4.4 vs New York: 4.3
OPS (Season) +2.2%
Miami: 72.7% vs New York: 70.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 5.7 9
NYM Score 4.8 19
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.0 / 0.4 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 10.2 / 7.9 18.0 / 15.0
Home Runs 1.1 / 0.3 6.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 7.8 / 8.7 10.0 / 5.0
Total Bases 15.3 / 10.0 39.0 / 26.0
Walks 2.5 / 4.8 1.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
8%MONEY92%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
MIA
NYM
MIA
ML
50% 79-80
48% 78-84
48% 76-83
55% 88-72
ATS
58% 93-66
56% 91-71
49% 78-81
54% 86-74
TTL
55% 80-66-13
56% 88-69-5
51% 74-72-13
53% 82-73-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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