DETROIT
TIGERSDET
78-57 | Road
5
KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
69-65 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Finnegan
#67 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Seth Lugo
#67 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Finnegan | None-None | 3.27 | -- | 1.2 | 3 |
| Seth Lugo | None-None | 4.15 | -- | 3.1 | 5 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.27 Ldr
ERA
4.15
--
WHIP
--
1.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 3.1
3
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
56%
ROYALS
44%
TIGERS
--
ROYALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Kansas City)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around KC -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)
DET By 1-2 runs
16.5%
DET By 3-4 runs
10.9%
KC By 1-2 runs
19.5%
KC By 3-4 runs
16.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
4.41
DETROIT
Kansas City
5.32
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
Detroit
3
DETROIT
Kansas City
5
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Royals
Loss
44% Win Prob
D
Sim
Royals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Royals (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.9
D
Sim
Royals (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
DET @ KC
7 - 11
Aug 22, 2026
DET @ KC
1 - 3
Aug 21, 2026
DET @ KC
2 - 5
Jul 26, 2026
KC @ DET
5 - 4
Jul 25, 2026
KC @ DET
3 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit
DET
vs
Kansas City
KC
162
Games Played
162
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
4.26
.241
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.320
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.720
▲
OPS
.718
181
▲
Home Runs
170
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+54.8% more
Kansas City: 10.5
vs
Detroit: 6.8
Total Bases (L5)
+36.3% more
Kansas City: 16.6
vs
Detroit: 12.2
Batting Avg (Season)
+0.6%
Kansas City: 24.7%
vs
Detroit: 24.1%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+0.2%
Kansas City: 40.2%
vs
Detroit: 40.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
4.4
5
KC Score
5.3
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 1.7
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
10.5 / 6.8
9.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.2
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.7 / 9.2
11.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
16.6 / 12.2
17.0 / 15.0
Walks
2.0 / 3.4
4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
Advantage
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
KC
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
DET
KC
DET
ML
55%
89-72
54%
86-73
56%
90-70
54%
87-73
ATS
57%
91-70
64%
101-58
58%
93-67
57%
91-69
TTL
58%
90-64-7
46%
69-81-9
54%
83-70-7
46%
69-81-10
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