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CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

76-58  |  Road

11
FINAL
Fri, Aug 29 • 8:40 PM ET
Coors Field
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

38-96  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Ben Brown
STARTING PITCHER

Ben Brown

#32 | Pitcher
@
Kyle Karros
STARTING PITCHER

Kyle Karros

#12 | Third Base
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Ben Brown None-None 5.88 -- 2.0 5
Kyle Karros None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
5.88 ERA --
-- WHIP --
2.0 IP (Innings Pitched) --
5 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
77%
📊
ROCKIES
23%
CUBS --
ROCKIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 78%
Under 0 22%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Chicago)
CubsCHC (-3.5) 0 RockiesCOL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cubs Cover

55.2%

Rockies Cover

44.8%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHC -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.2%

CHC By 3-4 runs

15.0%

COL By 1-2 runs

17.4%

COL By 3-4 runs

12.0%

AI Model Projected Score
3.6
CHICAGO
3.08
COLORADO
Simulated Score
4
CHICAGO
6
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cubs Win
77% Win Prob
B
Sim Rockies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cubs (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.5
B
Sim Rockies (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.7
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 17, 2026 COL @ CHC 6 - 8
Jun 16, 2026 COL @ CHC 5 - 2
Jun 15, 2026 COL @ CHC 4 - 5
Jun 11, 2026 CHC @ COL 9 - 3
Jun 10, 2026 CHC @ COL 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHC
vs
Colorado COL
2
Games Played
▲ 162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.64
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲ .254
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .322
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .417
.374
OPS
▲ .739
0
Home Runs
▲ 180
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +22.0% more
Chicago: 1.2 vs Colorado: 1.0
Total Bases (L5) +21.9% more
Chicago: 12.6 vs Colorado: 9.8
Hits (L5) +14.5% more
Chicago: 7.4 vs Colorado: 6.3
Home Runs (Season) +18000.0% more
Colorado: 180.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHC Score 3.6 11
COL Score 3.1 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.3 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 6.3 / 7.4 14.0 / 15.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 1.2 2.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts 7.6 / 7.0 2.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 9.8 / 12.6 26.0 / 34.0
Walks 3.6 / 2.1 4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
92%TICKETS8%
92%MONEY8%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
95%MONEY5%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
COL Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
CHC
COL
CHC
ML
60% 97-64
58% 93-68
55% 88-73
51% 82-79
ATS
60% 97-64
61% 97-63-1
52% 83-78
47% 75-85-1
TTL
60% 93-62-6
52% 81-74-6
50% 77-78-6
46% 72-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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