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BALTIMORE

ORIOLESBAL

60-74  |  Road

8
FINAL
Fri, Aug 29 • 10:15 PM ET
Oracle Park
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

66-68  |  Home

15
Probable Pitchers
Grant Wolfram
STARTING PITCHER

Grant Wolfram

#48 | Relief Pitcher
@
👤
STARTING PITCHER

Keaton Winn

#67 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Grant Wolfram None-None 5.06 -- 1.2 3
Keaton Winn None-None 4.50 -- 2.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
5.06 ERA Ldr 4.50
-- WHIP --
1.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.0
3 K (Strikeouts) 3
AI Model Win Probability
ORIOLES
46%
📊
GIANTS
54%
ORIOLES --
GIANTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 40%
Under 0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (San Francisco)
OriolesBAL (-3.5) 0 GiantsSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Orioles Cover

43.2%

Giants Cover

56.8%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SF -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

BAL By 1-2 runs

17.0%

BAL By 3-4 runs

11.5%

SF By 1-2 runs

19.3%

SF By 3-4 runs

15.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.76
BALTIMORE
4.45
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
3
BALTIMORE
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Giants Win
54% Win Prob
D
Sim Giants Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Giants (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.7
B
Sim Giants (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.2
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 12, 2026 SF @ BAL 2 - 6
Apr 11, 2026 SF @ BAL 2 - 6
Apr 10, 2026 SF @ BAL 6 - 3
Aug 31, 2025 BAL @ SF 2 - 13
Aug 30, 2025 BAL @ SF 11 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Baltimore BAL
vs
San Francisco SF
161
Games Played
▲ 162
4.46 ▲
Runs / Game
4.13
.234
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.314 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.306
.396
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .400
.711 ▲
OPS
.706
199 ▲
Home Runs
178
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +152.0% more
San Francisco: 2.3 vs Baltimore: 0.8
Walks (L5) +63.6% more
San Francisco: 2.5 vs Baltimore: 1.5
Total Bases (L5) +42.0% more
San Francisco: 17.0 vs Baltimore: 11.9
Hits (L5) +20.1% more
San Francisco: 8.9 vs Baltimore: 7.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAL Score 3.8 8
SF Score 4.5 15
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.3 0.0 / 3.0
Hits 8.9 / 7.4 18.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 2.3 / 0.8 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.0 / 8.6 9.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 17.0 / 11.9 26.0 / 15.0
Walks 2.5 / 1.5 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
40%MONEY60%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
57%MONEY43%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
46%MONEY54%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL Advantage
79-82-0 (49.1%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1 ATS +/-:
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.5
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
BAL
SF
BAL
ML
49% 79-81
53% 83-73
53% 85-75
57% 90-69
ATS
62% 100-60
61% 95-60-1
52% 83-77
57% 90-68-1
TTL
55% 82-68-10
54% 81-70-5
46% 68-81-11
51% 78-75-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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