Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cubs @ Giants CHC @ SF

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

76-57  |  Road

3
FINAL
Thu, Aug 28 • 3:45 PM ET
Oracle Park
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

65-68  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Shota Imanaga
STARTING PITCHER

Shota Imanaga

#18 | Starting Pitcher
@
Logan Webb
STARTING PITCHER

Logan Webb

#62 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Shota Imanaga None-None 3.08 -- 7.0 5
Logan Webb None-None 3.16 -- 7.0 7
None-None W-L None-None
3.08 Ldr ERA 3.16
-- WHIP --
7.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 7.0
5 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 7
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
58%
📊
GIANTS
42%
CUBS --
GIANTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 70%
Under 0 30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (San Francisco)
CubsCHC (-3.5) 0 GiantsSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cubs Cover

35.2%

Giants Cover

64.8%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SF -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

CHC By 1-2 runs

14.9%

CHC By 3-4 runs

9.1%

SF By 1-2 runs

19.7%

SF By 3-4 runs

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
2.54
CHICAGO
4.06
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
3
CHICAGO
5
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Giants Win
42% Win Prob
D
Sim Giants Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Giants (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim Giants (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.6
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jun 14, 2026 CHC @ SF 1 - 5
Jun 13, 2026 CHC @ SF 6 - 1
Jun 12, 2026 CHC @ SF 5 - 1
Jun 7, 2026 SF @ CHC 2 - 1
Jun 6, 2026 SF @ CHC 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHC
vs
San Francisco SF
2
Games Played
▲ 162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.13
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .306
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .400
.374
OPS
▲ .706
0
Home Runs
▲ 178
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +17800.0% more
San Francisco: 178.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season) +363.0% more
San Francisco: 4.1 vs Chicago: 0.5
Home Runs (L5) +158.0% more
San Francisco: 2.4 vs Chicago: 0.8
Total Bases (L5) +69.9% more
San Francisco: 18.5 vs Chicago: 10.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHC Score 2.5 3
SF Score 4.1 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.5 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.4 / 7.0 8.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 2.4 / 0.8 2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 7.5 / 7.6 9.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 18.5 / 10.9 14.0 / 16.0
Walks 3.2 / 2.6 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
82%MONEY18%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
78%MONEY22%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
33%MONEY67%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
SF Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
CHC
SF
CHC
ML
49% 79-81
58% 93-68
53% 85-75
51% 82-79
ATS
62% 100-60
61% 97-63-1
52% 83-77
47% 75-85-1
TTL
55% 82-68-10
52% 81-74-6
46% 68-81-11
46% 72-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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