MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
62-71 | Road
7
NEW YORK
METSNYM
72-61 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Calvin Faucher
#53 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Brett Baty
#7 | Third Base| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Faucher | None-None | 3.35 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Brett Baty | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.35
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
1
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
MARLINS
43%
METS
57%
MARLINS
--
METS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
56%
Under 0
44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
MIA By 1-2 runs
17.3%
MIA By 3-4 runs
11.8%
NYM By 1-2 runs
19.2%
NYM By 3-4 runs
15.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
4.83
MIAMI
New York
5.42
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Miami
3
MIAMI
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mets
Loss
57% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mets (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.6
D
Sim
Mets (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 9, 2026
NYM @ MIA
15 - 14
Sep 8, 2026
NYM @ MIA
7 - 5
Sep 7, 2026
NYM @ MIA
9 - 4
Aug 2, 2026
MIA @ NYM
2 - 0
Aug 1, 2026
MIA @ NYM
6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Miami
MIA
vs
New York
NYM
162
Games Played
162
4.41
▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.249
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.727
▲
OPS
.705
168
Home Runs
▲
204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+77.0% more
New York: 1.2
vs
Miami: 0.4
Total Bases (L5)
+62.5% more
New York: 17.0
vs
Miami: 10.5
Hits (L5)
+59.0% more
New York: 11.8
vs
Miami: 7.4
Home Runs (Season)
+21.4% more
New York: 204.0
vs
Miami: 168.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
4.8
7
NYM Score
5.4
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.0 / 0.1
3.0 / 1.0
Hits
11.8 / 7.4
7.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 0.4
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.2 / 8.0
5.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
17.0 / 10.5
12.0 / 9.0
Walks
2.3 / 5.7
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
MIA
NYM
MIA
ML
50%
79-80
48%
78-84
48%
76-83
55%
88-72
ATS
58%
93-66
56%
91-71
49%
78-81
54%
86-74
TTL
55%
80-66-13
56%
88-69-5
51%
74-72-13
53%
82-73-5
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