Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UAlbany @ Iowa ALB @ IOWA

UALBANY

UALBANYALB

0-0  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Aug 30 • 6:00 PM ET
Kinnick Stadium
View Odds Details →

IOWA

IOWAIOWA

0-0  |  Home

34
Key Game
Donny Jones
KEY GAME

Donny Jones

#4 | Defensive Back
@
Deshaun Lee
KEY GAME

Deshaun Lee

#8 | Defensive Back
Player
Donny Jones None-None
Deshaun Lee None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UALBANY
100%
📊
IOWA
0%
UALBANY --
IOWA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
42.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.6
IOWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.6 points (Iowa)
UAlbanyALB (-3.5) 0 IowaIOWA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UAlbany Cover

10.5%

Iowa Cover

89.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around IOWA -17.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IOWA)

ALB By 1-6 points

5.6%

ALB By 7-13 points

3.0%

IOWA By 1-6 points

10.3%

IOWA By 7-13 points

17.1%

AI Model Projected Score
12.22
UALBANY
29.78
IOWA
Simulated Score
3
UALBANY
31
IOWA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Iowa Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Iowa Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Iowa (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -17.6
C
Sim Iowa (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 42.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 34.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2025 ALB @ IOWA 7 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +87.2% more
Iowa: 160.0 vs UAlbany: 85.5
Turnovers (L5) +12.0% more
Iowa: 0.9 vs UAlbany: 0.8
First Downs (L5) +14.2% more
UAlbany: 16.8 vs Iowa: 14.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ALB Score 12.2 7
IOWA Score 29.8 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 14.4 / 16.8 20.0 / 9.0
Rushing Yards 160.0 / 85.5 310.0 / 43.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.62 / 0.18
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.61 / 0.39
Total Yards 282.7 / 291.1 358.0 / 177.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 0.8 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
22%MONEY78%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
21%MONEY79%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ALB
--
IOWA Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 16.4 ATS +/-: +3.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ALB
--
IOWA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 16.4 ATS +/-: +3.7
⚖️ Over/Under
ALB
--
IOWA
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IOWA
ALB
IOWA
ALB
ML
80% 4-1
100% 2-0
80% 4-1
100% 2-0
ATS
60% 3-2
50% 1-1
40% 2-3
100% 2-0
TTL
20% 1-4
0% 0-2
0% 0-5
50% 1-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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