BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
73-60 | Road
3
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
60-72 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Aroldis Chapman
#44 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Dylan Beavers
#12 | Left Field| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aroldis Chapman | None-None | 1.04 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
| Dylan Beavers | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.04
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
3
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
59%
ORIOLES
41%
RED SOX
--
ORIOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
80%
Under 0
20%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BOS -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
BOS By 1-2 runs
19.3%
BOS By 3-4 runs
15.3%
BAL By 1-2 runs
17.2%
BAL By 3-4 runs
11.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
4.72
BOSTON
Baltimore
4.1
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
Boston
4
BOSTON
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox
Win
59% Win Prob
D
Sim
Orioles
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.6
B
Sim
Orioles (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.8
A
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 6, 2026
BOS @ BAL
3 - 1
Sep 5, 2026
BOS @ BAL
5 - 0
Sep 4, 2026
BOS @ BAL
1 - 0
Sep 3, 2026
BOS @ BAL
6 - 5
Jul 22, 2026
BAL @ BOS
5 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
Baltimore
BAL
2
Games Played
▲
161
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.234
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.314
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.396
.409
OPS
▲
.711
2
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+32.4% more
Boston: 1.4
vs
Baltimore: 1.0
Total Bases (L5)
+20.6% more
Boston: 14.6
vs
Baltimore: 11.6
Hits (L5)
+11.8% more
Boston: 8.5
vs
Baltimore: 7.5
Walks (L5)
+11.2% more
Boston: 2.4
vs
Baltimore: 2.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
4.7
3
BAL Score
4.1
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.4
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.5 / 8.5
5.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.4
0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.9 / 10.2
7.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
11.6 / 14.6
8.0 / 14.0
Walks
2.2 / 2.4
1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
BOS
BAL
BOS
ML
53%
83-73
50%
80-80
57%
90-69
47%
76-87
ATS
61%
95-60-1
58%
93-67
57%
90-68-1
48%
79-84
TTL
54%
81-70-5
46%
72-83-5
51%
78-75-6
47%
74-83-6
Contextual Game News
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …
Yankees Fan Ejected After Interfering with Potential Game-Tying …
Orioles' Centerfield Crisis: Why Byron Buxton Could Be the Answer
Padres and Brewers: A Friendly Rivalry Rooted in Shared History
Shane Baz's First Year with Orioles: A Mediocre Showing Raises Q…