Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / North Dakota @ Kansas St UND @ KSU

NORTH DAKOTA

NORTH DAKOTAUND

0-0  |  Road

35
FINAL
Sat, Aug 30 • 7:00 PM ET
Bill Snyder Family Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS STATE

KANSAS STKSU

0-1  |  Home

38
Key Game
Luke Silvernale
KEY GAME

Luke Silvernale

#85 | Punter
@
Simon McClannan
KEY GAME

Simon McClannan

#8 | Punter
Player
Luke Silvernale None-None
Simon McClannan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NORTH DAKOTA
100%
📊
KANSAS ST
0%
NORTH DAKOTA --
KANSAS ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
43.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.8
KANSAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.8 points (Kansas State)
North DakotaUND (-3.5) 0 Kansas StKSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

North Dakota Cover

42.1%

Kansas St Cover

57.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around KSU -2.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KSU)

UND By 1-6 points

15.4%

UND By 7-13 points

13.1%

KSU By 1-6 points

16.9%

KSU By 7-13 points

17.3%

AI Model Projected Score
20.45
NORTH DAKOTA
23.25
KANSAS STATE
Simulated Score
10
NORTH DAKOTA
48
KANSAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Kansas St Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Kansas St Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Kansas St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.8
C
Sim Kansas St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -38.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 43.7
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2025 UND @ KSU 35 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +53.0% more
Kansas State: 194.7 vs North Dakota: 127.3
Total Yards (L5) +49.3% more
Kansas State: 425.1 vs North Dakota: 284.7
Turnovers (L5) +17.6% more
Kansas State: 1.5 vs North Dakota: 1.3
Time of Possession (L5) +10.0% more
North Dakota: 0.6 vs Kansas State: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UND Score 20.5 35
KSU Score 23.3 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.8 / 17.5 22.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 194.7 / 127.3 143.0 / 102.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.38 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 425.1 / 284.7 461.0 / 354.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 1.3 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
44%MONEY56%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
17%MONEY83%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
41%MONEY59%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UND Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 23.8 ATS +/-: +5.5
KSU
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 25.3 ATS +/-: +4.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UND Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 23.8 ATS +/-: +5.5
KSU
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 25.3 ATS +/-: +4.0
⚖️ Over/Under
UND
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -5.5
KSU
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KSU
UND
KSU
UND
ML
75% 3-1
100% 2-0
75% 3-1
100% 2-0
ATS
75% 3-1
0% 0-2
75% 3-1
50% 1-1
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 1-1
75% 3-1
100% 2-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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