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PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

76-55  |  Road

5
FINAL
Tue, Aug 26 • 7:10 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

70-61  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Jhoan Duran
STARTING PITCHER

Jhoan Duran

#59 | Relief Pitcher
@
Sean Manaea
STARTING PITCHER

Sean Manaea

#59 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jhoan Duran None-None 2.05 -- -- --
Sean Manaea None-None 5.01 -- 4.2 8
None-None W-L None-None
2.05 Ldr ERA 5.01
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 4.2
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 8
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
55%
📊
METS
45%
PHILLIES --
METS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 67%
Under 0 33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (New York)
PhilliesPHI (-3.5) 0 MetsNYM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Phillies Cover

37.4%

Mets Cover

62.6%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

PHI By 1-2 runs

15.6%

PHI By 3-4 runs

9.8%

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.7%

NYM By 3-4 runs

17.0%

AI Model Projected Score
4.51
PHILADELPHIA
5.8
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
3
PHILADELPHIA
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mets Win
45% Win Prob
D
Sim Mets Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mets (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.3
C
Sim Mets (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.3
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 PHI @ NYM 7 - 2
Sep 19, 2026 PHI @ NYM 3 - 10
Sep 18, 2026 PHI @ NYM 3 - 6
Sep 17, 2026 PHI @ NYM 3 - 0
Jul 19, 2026 NYM @ PHI 6 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia PHI
vs
New York NYM
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.31
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .310
.438 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.724 ▲
OPS
.705
3
Home Runs
▲ 204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +6700.0% more
New York: 204.0 vs Philadelphia: 3.0
Home Runs (L5) +98.0% more
New York: 1.9 vs Philadelphia: 0.9
Total Bases (L5) +44.3% more
New York: 19.8 vs Philadelphia: 13.7
Hits (L5) +38.2% more
New York: 11.5 vs Philadelphia: 8.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 4.5 5
NYM Score 5.8 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.7 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 11.5 / 8.3 12.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 1.9 / 0.9 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.0 / 10.6 15.0 / 10.0
Total Bases 19.8 / 13.7 13.0 / 16.0
Walks 3.6 / 3.4 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
56%MONEY44%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI Advantage
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
NYM Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
PHI
NYM
PHI
ML
50% 79-80
59% 97-67
48% 76-83
49% 80-84
ATS
58% 93-66
65% 107-57
49% 78-81
51% 83-81
TTL
55% 80-66-13
57% 88-67-9
51% 74-72-13
51% 78-76-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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