Home / MLB Projections MLB / Royals @ White Sox KC @ CHW

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

67-65  |  Road

5
FINAL
Tue, Aug 26 • 7:40 PM ET
Rate Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

48-83  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Tyler Tolbert
STARTING PITCHER

Tyler Tolbert

#2 | Shortstop
@
Grant Taylor
STARTING PITCHER

Grant Taylor

#31 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Tyler Tolbert None-None -- -- -- --
Grant Taylor None-None 5.53 -- 0.2 2
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 5.53
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 0.2
-- K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
64%
📊
WHITE SOX
36%
ROYALS --
WHITE SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 35%
Under 0 65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Kansas City)
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 White SoxCHW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

52.1%

White Sox Cover

47.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around KC -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

KC By 1-2 runs

18.8%

KC By 3-4 runs

14.2%

CHW By 1-2 runs

18.1%

CHW By 3-4 runs

13.0%

AI Model Projected Score
4.66
KANSAS CITY
4.45
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
3
KANSAS CITY
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Royals Win
64% Win Prob
C
Sim White Sox Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Royals (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.2
D
Sim White Sox (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.1
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 24, 2026 CHW @ KC 9 - 1
Sep 23, 2026 CHW @ KC 4 - 5
Sep 22, 2026 CHW @ KC 14 - 11
Jun 28, 2026 KC @ CHW 5 - 4
Jun 27, 2026 KC @ CHW 1 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Chicago CHW
162 ▲
Games Played
1
4.26
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲ .324
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .415
.402
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .412
.718
OPS
▲ .826
170 ▲
Home Runs
1
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +99.4% more
Kansas City: 170.0 vs Chicago: 1.0
Walks (L5) +50.8% more
Chicago: 2.7 vs Kansas City: 1.8
Hits (L5) +48.8% more
Chicago: 10.8 vs Kansas City: 7.2
Runs per Game (Season) +40.8% more
Chicago: 6.0 vs Kansas City: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 4.7 5
CHW Score 4.5 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 10.8 / 7.2 9.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.5 / 1.1 1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.1 / 5.7 8.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 17.4 / 12.6 12.0 / 9.0
Walks 2.7 / 1.8 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
84%MONEY16%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
76%MONEY24%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
CHW Advantage
88-79-0 (52.7%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
CHW Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHW
KC
CHW
KC
ML
49% 81-86
55% 89-72
56% 94-73
56% 90-70
ATS
59% 99-68
57% 91-70
56% 93-74
58% 93-67
TTL
58% 96-69-2
58% 90-64-7
51% 84-81-2
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
yahoo 1 hour, 39 minutes ago
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
yardbarker 1 hour, 46 minutes ago
White Sox Eye ALDS Sweep Over Guardians in Game 3 Showdown
yahoo 1 day, 13 hours ago
MLB Division Series: All Four Could End Today for First Time Sin…
si 1 day, 13 hours ago
Sean Burke's Relief Masterclass Puts White Sox on Brink of ALCS
yahoo 1 day, 19 hours ago