BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
71-60 | Road
4
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
60-70 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Aroldis Chapman
#44 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Grant Wolfram
#48 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aroldis Chapman | None-None | 1.06 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Grant Wolfram | None-None | 5.03 | -- | 2.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.06 Ldr
ERA
5.03
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 2.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
RED SOX
58%
ORIOLES
42%
RED SOX
--
ORIOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
27%
Under 0
73%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around BOS -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
BOS By 1-2 runs
18.7%
BOS By 3-4 runs
14.0%
BAL By 1-2 runs
18.2%
BAL By 3-4 runs
13.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Boston
4.93
BOSTON
Baltimore
4.78
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
Boston
3
BOSTON
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox
Win
58% Win Prob
D
Sim
Orioles
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Red Sox (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.1
A
Sim
Orioles (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 6, 2026
BOS @ BAL
3 - 1
Sep 5, 2026
BOS @ BAL
5 - 0
Sep 4, 2026
BOS @ BAL
1 - 0
Sep 3, 2026
BOS @ BAL
6 - 5
Jul 22, 2026
BAL @ BOS
5 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Boston
BOS
vs
Baltimore
BAL
2
Games Played
▲
161
1.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.117
Avg (AVG)
▲
.234
.159
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.314
.250
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.396
.409
OPS
▲
.711
2
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+9850.0% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+346.0% more
Baltimore: 4.5
vs
Boston: 1.0
Home Runs (L5)
+97.0% more
Baltimore: 1.7
vs
Boston: 0.7
Errors (L5)
+44.0% more
Baltimore: 0.8
vs
Boston: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
BOS Score
4.9
4
BAL Score
4.8
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.4
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.3 / 8.8
6.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.7 / 0.7
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.5 / 9.0
11.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
15.4 / 13.1
11.0 / 14.0
Walks
3.1 / 3.2
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
BOS
BAL
BOS
ML
53%
83-73
50%
80-80
57%
90-69
47%
76-87
ATS
61%
95-60-1
58%
93-67
57%
90-68-1
48%
79-84
TTL
54%
81-70-5
46%
72-83-5
51%
78-75-6
47%
74-83-6
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