PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
76-54 | Road
3
NEW YORK
METSNYM
69-61 | Home
13
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brooks Raley
#30 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Kodai Senga
#34 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brooks Raley | None-None | 2.03 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Kodai Senga | None-None | 2.73 | -- | 4.0 | 4 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.03 Ldr
ERA
2.73
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 4.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
55%
METS
45%
PHILLIES
--
METS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
61%
Under 0
39%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.3
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.3 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -0.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
PHI By 1-2 runs
17.8%
PHI By 3-4 runs
12.6%
NYM By 1-2 runs
18.9%
NYM By 3-4 runs
14.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
4.71
PHILADELPHIA
New York
5.05
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
4
PHILADELPHIA
New York
5
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mets
Win
45% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mets
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mets (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.3
C
Sim
Mets (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.8
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
PHI @ NYM
7 - 2
Sep 19, 2026
PHI @ NYM
3 - 10
Sep 18, 2026
PHI @ NYM
3 - 6
Sep 17, 2026
PHI @ NYM
3 - 0
Jul 19, 2026
NYM @ PHI
6 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
New York
NYM
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.31
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.310
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.724
▲
OPS
.705
3
Home Runs
▲
204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+6700.0% more
New York: 204.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Home Runs (L5)
+69.5% more
New York: 2.4
vs
Philadelphia: 1.4
Walks (L5)
+60.6% more
New York: 3.3
vs
Philadelphia: 2.1
Runs per Game (Season)
+23.1% more
New York: 4.3
vs
Philadelphia: 3.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
4.7
3
NYM Score
5.1
13
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.5
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
10.3 / 9.5
14.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
2.4 / 1.4
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
8.9 / 11.9
6.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
19.2 / 16.1
21.0 / 9.0
Walks
3.3 / 2.1
4.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
NYM
Advantage
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
PHI
NYM
PHI
ML
50%
79-80
59%
97-67
48%
76-83
49%
80-84
ATS
58%
93-66
65%
107-57
49%
78-81
51%
83-81
TTL
55%
80-66-13
57%
88-67-9
51%
74-72-13
51%
78-76-9
Contextual Game News
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …
Yankees' Faithful Boo as Another Season Ends in Disappointment: …
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …