Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cardinals @ Rays STL @ TB

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

64-66  |  Road

2
FINAL
Sun, Aug 24 • 12:10 PM ET
George M. Steinbrenner Field
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

62-67  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Matt Svanson
STARTING PITCHER

Matt Svanson

#49 | Relief Pitcher
@
Nick Fortes
STARTING PITCHER

Nick Fortes

#40 | Catcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Matt Svanson None-None 2.28 -- 0.2 1
Nick Fortes None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
2.28 ERA --
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) --
1 K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
51%
📊
RAYS
49%
CARDINALS --
RAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 30%
Under 0 70%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (St. Louis)
CardinalsSTL (-3.5) 0 RaysTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

55.0%

Rays Cover

45.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around STL -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)

STL By 1-2 runs

19.1%

STL By 3-4 runs

15.0%

TB By 1-2 runs

17.5%

TB By 3-4 runs

12.1%

AI Model Projected Score
4.06
ST. LOUIS
3.56
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
3
ST. LOUIS
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cardinals Loss
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Rays Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cardinals (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.5
C
Sim Rays (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.6
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 29, 2026 TB @ STL 11 - 7
Mar 28, 2026 TB @ STL 5 - 6
Mar 26, 2026 TB @ STL 7 - 9
Aug 24, 2025 STL @ TB 2 - 7
Aug 22, 2025 STL @ TB 6 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis STL
vs
Tampa Bay TB
162
Games Played
162
4.44
Runs / Game
▲ 4.54
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .326
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.691
OPS
▲ .728
167
Home Runs
▲ 169
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +34.8% more
St. Louis: 4.2 vs Tampa Bay: 2.7
Errors (L5) +13.0% more
St. Louis: 0.8 vs Tampa Bay: 0.7
Home Runs (L5) +44.1% more
Tampa Bay: 1.8 vs St. Louis: 1.3
Total Bases (L5) +28.5% more
Tampa Bay: 17.9 vs St. Louis: 14.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 4.1 2
TB Score 3.6 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.8 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 10.7 / 8.9 8.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.8 / 1.3 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 8.9 / 7.9 8.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 17.9 / 14.0 17.0 / 5.0
Walks 2.7 / 4.2 3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
51%MONEY49%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
52%MONEY48%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
TB
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
STL
TB
STL
ML
58% 95-68
53% 85-74
58% 95-68
52% 84-77
ATS
60% 97-66
56% 89-70
55% 90-73
53% 85-76
TTL
47% 73-81-9
46% 68-81-10
51% 78-75-10
50% 76-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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