HOUSTON
ASTROSHOU
72-58 | Road
2
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
59-70 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cam Smith
#11 | Right Field@
STARTING PITCHER
Rico Garcia
#50 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Smith | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Rico Garcia | None-None | 3.54 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
3.54
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.1
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
ASTROS
60%
ORIOLES
40%
ASTROS
--
ORIOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
64%
Under 0
36%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
HOU By 1-2 runs
17.7%
HOU By 3-4 runs
12.4%
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.0%
BAL By 3-4 runs
14.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
3.31
HOUSTON
Baltimore
3.72
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
Houston
4
HOUSTON
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Orioles
Win
40% Win Prob
D
Sim
Orioles
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Orioles (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.4
D
Sim
Orioles (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 19, 2026
BAL @ HOU
5 - 2
Jul 18, 2026
BAL @ HOU
4 - 2
Jul 17, 2026
BAL @ HOU
3 - 2
Apr 30, 2026
HOU @ BAL
3 - 10
Apr 28, 2026
HOU @ BAL
3 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Houston
HOU
vs
Baltimore
BAL
2
Games Played
▲
161
3.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.169
Avg (AVG)
▲
.234
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.314
.354
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.396
.582
OPS
▲
.711
4
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+4875.0% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Houston: 4.0
Errors (L5)
+63.0% more
Baltimore: 1.2
vs
Houston: 0.6
Runs per Game (Season)
+48.7% more
Baltimore: 4.5
vs
Houston: 3.0
OPS (Season)
+12.9%
Baltimore: 71.1%
vs
Houston: 58.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
3.3
2
BAL Score
3.7
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.2 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
9.9 / 9.2
8.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.5 / 2.2
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
6.7 / 9.3
12.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
16.0 / 18.0
14.0 / 8.0
Walks
3.1 / 4.9
3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
81-83-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
81-74-9
O: 52.3% / U: 47.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
HOU
BAL
HOU
ML
53%
83-73
50%
81-82
57%
90-69
47%
77-87
ATS
61%
95-60-1
56%
91-72
57%
90-68-1
55%
90-74
TTL
54%
81-70-5
45%
70-84-9
51%
78-75-6
45%
69-86-9
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