Home / MLB Projections MLB / Guardians @ Rangers CLE @ TEX

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

64-64  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sun, Aug 24 • 2:35 PM ET
Globe Life Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

65-66  |  Home

5
Probable Pitchers
Erik Sabrowski
STARTING PITCHER

Erik Sabrowski

#62 | Relief Pitcher
@
Jakob Junis
STARTING PITCHER

Jakob Junis

#16 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Erik Sabrowski None-None 1.47 -- 0.1 1
Jakob Junis None-None 3.04 -- 1.1 1
None-None W-L None-None
1.47 Ldr ERA 3.04
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.1
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
GUARDIANS
50%
📊
RANGERS
50%
GUARDIANS --
RANGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Cleveland)
GuardiansCLE (-3.5) 0 RangersTEX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Guardians Cover

57.1%

Rangers Cover

42.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CLE -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

CLE By 1-2 runs

19.4%

CLE By 3-4 runs

15.6%

TEX By 1-2 runs

17.0%

TEX By 3-4 runs

11.4%

AI Model Projected Score
4.36
CLEVELAND
3.64
TEXAS
Simulated Score
3
CLEVELAND
5
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Guardians Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Rangers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Guardians (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.7
B
Sim Rangers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.0
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 1, 2026 TEX @ CLE 4 - 9
Jun 30, 2026 TEX @ CLE 4 - 2
Jun 29, 2026 TEX @ CLE 6 - 3
Jun 7, 2026 CLE @ TEX 0 - 10
Jun 6, 2026 CLE @ TEX 6 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Cleveland CLE
vs
Texas TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.19 ▲
Runs / Game
4.15
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .242
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.380
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .396
.696
OPS
▲ .713
162
Home Runs
▲ 183
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +23.0% more
Cleveland: 0.3 vs Texas: 0.0
Walks (L5) +9.0% more
Cleveland: 2.4 vs Texas: 2.2
Home Runs (L5) +153.0% more
Texas: 1.8 vs Cleveland: 0.3
Total Bases (L5) +111.7% more
Texas: 16.9 vs Cleveland: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CLE Score 4.4 0
TEX Score 3.6 5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.0 / 0.3 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 9.1 / 5.5 10.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.8 / 0.3 2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 9.9 / 5.5 9.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 16.9 / 8.0 17.0 / 5.0
Walks 2.2 / 2.4 2.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
39%MONEY61%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
43%MONEY57%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CLE Advantage
86-79-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
TEX
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CLE Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2% Total +/-: +0.5
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
CLE
TEX
CLE
ML
53% 86-76
54% 87-74
57% 91-70
49% 80-82
ATS
57% 92-70
58% 93-68
61% 98-63
59% 95-67
TTL
53% 78-70-14
55% 88-71-2
55% 81-66-14
43% 69-90-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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