Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Ball State @ Purdue BALL @ PUR

BALL STATE

BALL STATEBALL

0-0  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sat, Aug 30 • 12:00 PM ET
Ross-Ade Stadium
View Odds Details →

PURDUE

PURDUEPUR

0-0  |  Home

31
Key Game
Carson Holmer
KEY GAME

Carson Holmer

#98 | Place kicker
@
Breeon Ishmail
KEY GAME

Breeon Ishmail

#58 | Defensive End
Player
Carson Holmer None-None
Breeon Ishmail None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BALL STATE
0%
📊
PURDUE
100%
BALL STATE --
PURDUE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
24.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.5
BALL STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 points (Ball State)
Ball StateBALL (-3.5) 0 PurduePUR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ball State Cover

62.7%

Purdue Cover

37.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around BALL -4.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BALL)

BALL By 1-6 points

16.9%

BALL By 7-13 points

18.3%

PUR By 1-6 points

14.4%

PUR By 7-13 points

11.6%

AI Model Projected Score
14.53
BALL STATE
10
PURDUE
Simulated Score
17
BALL STATE
38
PURDUE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Ball State Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Purdue Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Ball State (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.5
C
Sim Purdue (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 24.5
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2025 BALL @ PUR 0 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +36.6% more
Ball State: 83.0 vs Purdue: 52.6
Total Yards (L5) +36.2% more
Ball State: 360.3 vs Purdue: 230.0
First Downs (L5) +34.5% more
Ball State: 19.6 vs Purdue: 12.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +22.0% more
Ball State: 0.5 vs Purdue: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BALL Score 14.5 0
PUR Score 10.0 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 12.9 / 19.6 23.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards 52.6 / 83.0 93.0 / 116.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.2 / 0.5 0.36 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 230.0 / 360.3 433.0 / 203.0
Turnovers 2.5 / 1.4 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BALL
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -18.6 ATS +/-: -3.7
PUR Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -4.6 ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BALL
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -18.6 ATS +/-: -3.7
PUR
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -4.6 ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
BALL
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +4.5
PUR
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +9.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PUR
BALL
PUR
BALL
ML
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
ATS
25% 1-3-1
60% 3-2
50% 2-2-1
40% 2-3
TTL
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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