Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Bucknell @ Air Force BUCK @ AFA

BUCKNELL

BUCKNELLBUCK

0-0  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sat, Aug 30 • 3:30 PM ET
Falcon Stadium
View Odds Details →

AIR FORCE

AIR FORCEAFA

0-0  |  Home

49
Key Game
Carter Enyard
KEY GAME

Carter Enyard

#15 | Linebacker
@
Jacob Medina
KEY GAME

Jacob Medina

#39 | Place kicker
Player
Carter Enyard None-None
Jacob Medina None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BUCKNELL
0%
📊
AIR FORCE
100%
BUCKNELL --
AIR FORCE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
33.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
BUCKNELL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Bucknell)
BucknellBUCK (-3.5) 0 Air ForceAFA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bucknell Cover

54.4%

Air Force Cover

45.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around BUCK -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUCK)

BUCK By 1-6 points

16.8%

BUCK By 7-13 points

16.5%

AFA By 1-6 points

15.9%

AFA By 7-13 points

14.1%

AI Model Projected Score
17.38
BUCKNELL
15.82
AIR FORCE
Simulated Score
10
BUCKNELL
45
AIR FORCE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bucknell Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Air Force Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bucknell (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.6
C
Sim Air Force (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 33.2
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2025 BUCK @ AFA 13 - 49
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +47.0% more
Bucknell: 1.5 vs Air Force: 0.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +242.8% more
Air Force: 272.5 vs Bucknell: 79.5
First Downs (L5) +70.7% more
Air Force: 21.0 vs Bucknell: 12.3
Total Yards (L5) +42.1% more
Air Force: 360.4 vs Bucknell: 253.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUCK Score 17.4 13
AFA Score 15.8 49
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.0 / 12.3 23.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 272.5 / 79.5 267.0 / 97.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.3 0.67 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 360.4 / 253.7 426.0 / 266.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.5 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
43%MONEY57%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
21%MONEY79%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BUCK
--
AFA Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 9.0 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BUCK
--
AFA Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 9.0 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
BUCK
--
AFA
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AFA
BUCK
AFA
BUCK
ML
33% 1-2
100% 2-0
100% 4-0
100% 2-0
ATS
67% 2-1
50% 1-1
100% 4-0
50% 1-1
TTL
67% 2-1
0% 0-2
50% 2-2
50% 1-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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