Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Morgan St @ South Alabama MORG @ USA

MORGAN STATE

MORGAN STMORG

0-0  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sat, Aug 30 • 7:00 PM ET
Hancock Whitney Stadium
View Odds Details →

SOUTH ALABAMA

SOUTH ALABAMAUSA

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38
Key Game
Shane Messenger
KEY GAME

Shane Messenger

#85 | Punter
@
Aleksi Pulkkinen
KEY GAME

Aleksi Pulkkinen

#40 | Punter
Player
Shane Messenger None-None
Aleksi Pulkkinen None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MORGAN ST
100%
📊
SOUTH ALABAMA
0%
MORGAN ST --
SOUTH ALABAMA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
36.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.1
SOUTH ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.1 points (South Alabama)
Morgan StMORG (-3.5) 0 South AlabamaUSA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Morgan St Cover

12.5%

South Alabama Cover

87.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around USA -16.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USA)

MORG By 1-6 points

6.5%

MORG By 7-13 points

3.6%

USA By 1-6 points

11.4%

USA By 7-13 points

18.0%

AI Model Projected Score
10.31
MORGAN STATE
26.43
SOUTH ALABAMA
Simulated Score
10
MORGAN STATE
42
SOUTH ALABAMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI South Alabama Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim South Alabama Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI South Alabama (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -16.1
C
Sim South Alabama (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -32.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 36.7
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2025 MORG @ USA 21 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +127.6% more
South Alabama: 199.4 vs Morgan State: 87.6
Total Yards (L5) +100.0% more
South Alabama: 442.6 vs Morgan State: 221.2
First Downs (L5) +51.3% more
South Alabama: 21.5 vs Morgan State: 14.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +14.0% more
South Alabama: 0.3 vs Morgan State: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MORG Score 10.3 21
USA Score 26.4 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.5 / 14.2 19.0 / 17.0
Rushing Yards 199.4 / 87.6 193.0 / 167.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.2 0.25 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 442.6 / 221.2 367.0 / 326.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 2.4 1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MORG
--
USA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: +3.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MORG
--
USA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: +3.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MORG
--
USA
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +14.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USA
MORG
USA
MORG
ML
80% 4-1
50% 1-1
80% 4-1
50% 1-1
ATS
60% 3-2
0% 0-2
80% 4-1
0% 0-2
TTL
80% 4-1
100% 2-0
60% 3-2
50% 1-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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