Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Lamar @ North Texas LAM @ UNT

LAMAR

LAMARLAM

0-0  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sat, Aug 30 • 8:00 PM ET
DATCU Stadium
View Odds Details →

NORTH TEXAS

NORTH TEXASUNT

0-0  |  Home

51
Key Game
Mason Stallons
KEY GAME

Mason Stallons

#33 | Place kicker
@
Terrell Washington
KEY GAME

Terrell Washington

#93 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Mason Stallons None-None
Terrell Washington None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LAMAR
100%
📊
NORTH TEXAS
0%
LAMAR --
NORTH TEXAS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
36.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.4
NORTH TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.4 points (North Texas)
LamarLAM (-3.5) 0 North TexasUNT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lamar Cover

40.5%

North Texas Cover

59.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UNT -3.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNT)

LAM By 1-6 points

15.1%

LAM By 7-13 points

12.6%

UNT By 1-6 points

17.0%

UNT By 7-13 points

17.7%

AI Model Projected Score
16.41
LAMAR
19.79
NORTH TEXAS
Simulated Score
17
LAMAR
38
NORTH TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI North Texas Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim North Texas Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI North Texas (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.4
C
Sim North Texas (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 36.2
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2025 LAM @ UNT 0 - 51
Sep 2, 2017 LAM @ UNT 14 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +77.6% more
North Texas: 163.2 vs Lamar: 91.9
Total Yards (L5) +76.8% more
North Texas: 464.6 vs Lamar: 262.8
Turnovers (L5) +43.9% more
North Texas: 2.1 vs Lamar: 1.5
First Downs (L5) +43.7% more
North Texas: 22.5 vs Lamar: 15.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LAM Score 16.4 0
UNT Score 19.8 51
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.5 / 15.7 26.0 / 8.0
Rushing Yards 163.2 / 91.9 133.0 / 31.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.58 / 0.23
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards 464.6 / 262.8 462.0 / 119.0
Turnovers 2.1 / 1.5 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
52%MONEY48%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
5%MONEY95%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAM
--
UNT Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 7.6 ATS +/-: +8.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAM
--
UNT Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 7.6 ATS +/-: +8.4
⚖️ Over/Under
LAM
--
UNT
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +14.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNT
LAM
UNT
LAM
ML
80% 4-1
100% 2-0
80% 4-1
100% 2-0
ATS
40% 2-3
100% 2-0
40% 2-3
50% 1-1
TTL
40% 2-3
50% 1-1
60% 3-2
50% 1-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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