Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Rice @ Louisiana RICE @ UL

RICE

RICERICE

0-0  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Aug 30 • 8:00 PM ET
Cajun Field
View Odds Details →

LOUISIANA

LOUISIANAUL

0-0  |  Home

12
Key Game
Enock Gota
KEY GAME

Enock Gota

#28 | Place kicker
@
Tony Sterner
KEY GAME

Tony Sterner

#95 | Place kicker
Player
Enock Gota None-None
Tony Sterner None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RICE
100%
📊
LOUISIANA
0%
RICE --
LOUISIANA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
41.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
LOUISIANA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Louisiana)
RiceRICE (-3.5) 0 LouisianaUL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rice Cover

48.2%

Louisiana Cover

51.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UL -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UL)

RICE By 1-6 points

16.3%

RICE By 7-13 points

14.9%

UL By 1-6 points

16.6%

UL By 7-13 points

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
20.24
RICE
20.87
LOUISIANA
Simulated Score
20
RICE
31
LOUISIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Louisiana Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Louisiana Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Louisiana (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -0.6
C
Sim Louisiana (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 41.1
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2025 RICE @ UL 14 - 12
Sep 17, 2022 UL @ RICE 21 - 33
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +14.4% more
Louisiana: 128.9 vs Rice: 112.6
Turnovers (L5) +31.6% more
Rice: 2.0 vs Louisiana: 1.3
First Downs (L5) +23.3% more
Rice: 21.0 vs Louisiana: 16.1
Total Yards (L5) +21.3% more
Rice: 405.6 vs Louisiana: 319.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
RICE Score 20.2 14
UL Score 20.9 12
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.1 / 21.0 16.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 128.9 / 112.6 151.0 / 206.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.47 / 0.42
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.39 / 0.61
Total Yards 319.3 / 405.6 239.0 / 251.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 2.0 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
17%MONEY83%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
RICE
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -9.4 ATS +/-: +1.5
UL Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: +7.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
RICE
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -9.4 ATS +/-: +1.5
UL Advantage
3-1-1 (75.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: +7.6
⚖️ Over/Under
RICE
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -3.7
UL
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -3.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UL
RICE
UL
RICE
ML
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
ATS
75% 3-1-1
40% 2-3
50% 2-2-1
40% 2-3
TTL
20% 1-4
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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