Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Bryant @ New Mexico St BRY @ NMSU

BRYANT

BRYANTBRY

0-0  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Aug 30 • 9:00 PM ET
Aggie Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

NEW MEXICO STATE

NEW MEXICO STNMSU

0-0  |  Home

19
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME

Kristian Karoglan

#36 | Place kicker
@
Enzo-Pierre Tayou
KEY GAME

Enzo-Pierre Tayou

#44 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Kristian Karoglan None-None
Enzo-Pierre Tayou None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BRYANT
50%
📊
NEW MEXICO ST
50%
BRYANT --
NEW MEXICO ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
44.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 38%
Under 0 62%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.2
BRYANT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.2 points (Bryant)
BryantBRY (-3.5) 0 New Mexico StNMSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bryant Cover

61.7%

New Mexico St Cover

38.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around BRY -4.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BRY)

BRY By 1-6 points

16.9%

BRY By 7-13 points

18.1%

NMSU By 1-6 points

14.6%

NMSU By 7-13 points

12.0%

AI Model Projected Score
24.42
BRYANT
20.25
NEW MEXICO STATE
Simulated Score
17
BRYANT
31
NEW MEXICO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bryant Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim New Mexico St Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bryant (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.2
D
Sim New Mexico St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 44.7
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2025 BRY @ NMSU 3 - 19
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +89.1% more
New Mexico State: 188.1 vs Bryant: 99.4
Turnovers (L5) +89.0% more
New Mexico State: 1.9 vs Bryant: 1.0
Total Yards (L5) +32.0% more
New Mexico State: 403.4 vs Bryant: 305.7
First Downs (L5) +21.2% more
New Mexico State: 22.8 vs Bryant: 18.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BRY Score 24.4 3
NMSU Score 20.3 19
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.8 / 18.8 19.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 188.1 / 99.4 78.0 / 68.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.25 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 403.4 / 305.7 305.0 / 255.0
Turnovers 1.9 / 1.0 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
18%MONEY82%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BRY
--
NMSU Advantage
2-4-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +2.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BRY
--
NMSU Advantage
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +2.3
⚖️ Over/Under
BRY
--
NMSU
2-4-0
O: 33.3% / U: 66.7% Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NMSU
BRY
NMSU
BRY
ML
80% 4-1
100% 1-0
83% 5-1
100% 1-0
ATS
80% 4-1
0% 0-1
67% 4-2
0% 0-1
TTL
40% 2-3
0% 0-1
50% 3-3
0% 0-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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