Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Ohio @ Rutgers OHIO @ RUTG

OHIO

OHIOOHIO

0-0  |  Road

31
FINAL
Thu, Aug 28 • 6:00 PM ET
SHI Stadium
View Odds Details →

RUTGERS

RUTGERSRUTG

0-0  |  Home

34
Key Game
Magnus Haines
KEY GAME

Magnus Haines

#42 | Punter
@
Jakob Anderson
KEY GAME

Jakob Anderson

#94 | Punter
Player
Magnus Haines None-None
Jakob Anderson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OHIO
0%
📊
RUTGERS
100%
OHIO --
RUTGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
82.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.5
OHIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.5 points (Ohio)
OhioOHIO (-3.5) 0 RutgersRUTG (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ohio Cover

84.9%

Rutgers Cover

15.1%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around OHIO -14.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OHIO)

OHIO By 1-6 points

12.6%

OHIO By 7-13 points

18.8%

RUTG By 1-6 points

7.6%

RUTG By 7-13 points

4.4%

AI Model Projected Score
48.35
OHIO
33.9
RUTGERS
Simulated Score
20
OHIO
28
RUTGERS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Ohio Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Rutgers Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Ohio (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.5
C
Sim Rutgers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 82.3
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 28, 2025 OHIO @ RUTG 31 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +51.5% more
Ohio: 1.3 vs Rutgers: 0.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +26.3% more
Ohio: 232.8 vs Rutgers: 171.5
Total Yards (L5) +16.0% more
Ohio: 454.4 vs Rutgers: 381.5
First Downs (L5) +10.5% more
Ohio: 25.6 vs Rutgers: 23.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OHIO Score 48.4 31
RUTG Score 33.9 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.0 / 25.6 24.0 / 24.0
Rushing Yards 171.5 / 232.8 147.0 / 201.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.6 0.1 / 0.5
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 381.5 / 454.4 399.0 / 440.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 1.3 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OHIO Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
RUTG
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -2.2 ATS +/-: -7.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OHIO
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
RUTG
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -2.2 ATS +/-: -7.0
⚖️ Over/Under
OHIO
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.7
RUTG
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +6.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
RUTG
OHIO
RUTG
OHIO
ML
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
100% 5-0
ATS
20% 1-4
25% 1-3
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
TTL
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
100% 5-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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