Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / East Carolina @ NC State ECU @ NCSU

EAST CAROLINA

EAST CAROLINAECU

0-0  |  Road

17
FINAL
Thu, Aug 28 • 7:00 PM ET
Carter-Finley Stadium
View Odds Details →

NC STATE

NC STATENCSU

0-0  |  Home

24
Key Game
Kendrick DuJour
KEY GAME

Kendrick DuJour

#9 | Defensive Lineman
@
Nick Konieczynski
KEY GAME

Nick Konieczynski

#91 | Place kicker
Player
Kendrick DuJour None-None
Nick Konieczynski None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
EAST CAROLINA
100%
📊
NC STATE
0%
EAST CAROLINA --
NC STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
69.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.8
NC STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.8 points (NC State)
East CarolinaECU (-3.5) 0 NC StateNCSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

East Carolina Cover

22.1%

NC State Cover

77.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NCSU -10.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NCSU)

ECU By 1-6 points

10.2%

ECU By 7-13 points

6.7%

NCSU By 1-6 points

14.9%

NCSU By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
29.33
EAST CAROLINA
40.08
NC STATE
Simulated Score
17
EAST CAROLINA
31
NC STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI NC State Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim NC State Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI NC State (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -10.8
C
Sim NC State (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 69.4
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 28, 2025 ECU @ NCSU 17 - 24
Dec 28, 2024 ECU @ NCSU 26 - 21
Sep 3, 2022 NCSU @ ECU 21 - 20
Aug 31, 2019 ECU @ NCSU 6 - 34
Dec 1, 2018 ECU @ NCSU 3 - 58
Key Model Drivers
Time of Possession (L5) +10.0% more
NC State: 0.5 vs East Carolina: 0.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +18.5% more
East Carolina: 232.7 vs NC State: 189.8
Turnovers (L5) +16.8% more
East Carolina: 1.8 vs NC State: 1.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +15.0% more
East Carolina: 0.5 vs NC State: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ECU Score 29.3 17
NCSU Score 40.1 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.3 / 22.1 21.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 189.8 / 232.7 105.0 / 30.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 413.9 / 461.8 423.0 / 413.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 1.8 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
47%MONEY53%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ECU
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-: -4.8
NCSU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 11.2 ATS +/-: +4.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ECU
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-: -4.8
NCSU Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 11.2 ATS +/-: +4.3
⚖️ Over/Under
ECU
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -4.5
NCSU
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +9.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NCSU
ECU
NCSU
ECU
ML
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
100% 5-0
25% 1-3
ATS
80% 4-1
25% 1-3
80% 4-1
25% 1-3
TTL
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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