Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Elon @ Duke ELON @ DUKE

ELON

ELONELON

0-0  |  Road

17
FINAL
Thu, Aug 28 • 7:30 PM ET
Wallace Wade Stadium
View Odds Details →

DUKE

DUKEDUKE

0-0  |  Home

45
Key Game
Luke Barnes
KEY GAME

Luke Barnes

#91 | Place kicker
@
Kade Reynoldson
KEY GAME

Kade Reynoldson

#41 | Punter
Player
Luke Barnes None-None
Kade Reynoldson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ELON
100%
📊
DUKE
0%
ELON --
DUKE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
29.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.4
DUKE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.4 points (Duke)
ElonELON (-3.5) 0 DukeDUKE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Elon Cover

6.3%

Duke Cover

93.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around DUKE -21.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DUKE)

ELON By 1-6 points

3.6%

ELON By 7-13 points

1.7%

DUKE By 1-6 points

7.6%

DUKE By 7-13 points

14.3%

AI Model Projected Score
4.18
ELON
25.55
DUKE
Simulated Score
10
ELON
45
DUKE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Duke Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Duke Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Duke (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -21.4
C
Sim Duke (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 29.7
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 28, 2025 ELON @ DUKE 17 - 45
Aug 30, 2024 ELON @ DUKE 3 - 26
Aug 30, 2014 ELON @ DUKE 13 - 52
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +73.1% more
Duke: 1.8 vs Elon: 1.0
Total Yards (L5) +29.3% more
Duke: 322.3 vs Elon: 249.3
First Downs (L5) +21.8% more
Duke: 16.9 vs Elon: 13.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +20.0% more
Elon: 85.9 vs Duke: 68.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ELON Score 4.2 17
DUKE Score 25.6 45
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.9 / 13.9 23.0 / 14.0
Rushing Yards 68.7 / 85.9 159.0 / 163.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.2 0.56 / 0.47
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 322.3 / 249.3 548.0 / 275.0
Turnovers 1.8 / 1.0 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
85%MONEY15%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
19%MONEY81%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ELON
--
DUKE Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 25.3 ATS +/-: +11.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ELON
--
DUKE Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 25.3 ATS +/-: +11.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ELON
--
DUKE
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -6.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DUKE
ELON
DUKE
ELON
ML
75% 3-1
-- 0-0
75% 3-1
-- 0-0
ATS
50% 2-2
-- 0-0
50% 2-2
-- 0-0
TTL
25% 1-3
-- 0-0
25% 1-3
-- 0-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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