Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Fresno St @ Kansas FRES @ KU

FRESNO STATE

FRESNO STFRES

0-0  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Aug 23 • 6:30 PM ET
David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS

KANSASKU

0-0  |  Home

31
Key Game
Sione Noa
KEY GAME

Sione Noa

#54 | Defensive Lineman
@
Tate Nagy
KEY GAME

Tate Nagy

#11 | Wide Receiver
Player
Sione Noa None-None
Tate Nagy None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FRESNO ST
50%
📊
KANSAS
50%
FRESNO ST --
KANSAS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
53.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.7
KANSAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.7 points (Kansas)
Fresno StFRES (-3.5) 0 KansasKU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Fresno St Cover

22.1%

Kansas Cover

77.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around KU -10.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KU)

FRES By 1-6 points

10.2%

FRES By 7-13 points

6.7%

KU By 1-6 points

14.9%

KU By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
21.3
FRESNO STATE
32.05
KANSAS
Simulated Score
24
FRESNO STATE
31
KANSAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Kansas Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Kansas Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Kansas (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -10.7
D
Sim Kansas (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 53.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 23, 2025 FRES @ KU 7 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +139.6% more
Kansas: 216.9 vs Fresno State: 90.5
Total Yards (L5) +45.5% more
Kansas: 449.7 vs Fresno State: 309.0
Turnovers (L5) +40.0% more
Kansas: 1.4 vs Fresno State: 1.0
First Downs (L5) +26.2% more
Kansas: 21.2 vs Fresno State: 16.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FRES Score 21.3 7
KU Score 32.1 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.2 / 16.8 22.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards 216.9 / 90.5 207.0 / 37.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.2 / 0.47
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 449.7 / 309.0 383.0 / 216.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.0 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FRES Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +9.4
KU
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 19.0 ATS +/-: +4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FRES Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +9.4
KU
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 19.0 ATS +/-: +4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
FRES
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.9
KU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KU
FRES
KU
FRES
ML
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
100% 5-0
ATS
25% 1-3
20% 1-4
0% 0-4
60% 3-2
TTL
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Dylan Raiola Highlights UCLA's Autzen Stadium Experience as Key …
si 0 minutes ago
South Alabama vs. Arkansas State: Live Stream, TV Channel, and G…
yahoo 0 minutes ago
Stephen A. Smith Highlights Kirby Smart's 2-7 Record Against Ala…
newsweek 5 hours, 48 minutes ago
SEC Power Rankings: Unraveling the Chaos After Another Turbulent…
hottytoddy 1 day ago
Missouri Freshman Lineman Johnnie DJ Jones Awaits Heart Transpla…
news29 1 day, 17 hours ago