Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Texas @ Ohio State TEX @ OSU

TEXAS

TEXASTEX

0-0  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Aug 30 • 12:00 PM ET
Ohio Stadium
View Odds Details →

OHIO STATE

OHIO STATEOSU

0-0  |  Home

14
Key Game
Ryan Niblett
KEY GAME

Ryan Niblett

#21 | Running Back
@
Joe McGuire
KEY GAME

Joe McGuire

#42 | Punter
Player
Ryan Niblett None-None
Joe McGuire None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TEXAS
100%
📊
OHIO STATE
0%
TEXAS --
OHIO STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
64.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.9
OHIO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.9 points (Ohio State)
TexasTEX (-3.5) 0 Ohio StateOSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texas Cover

21.9%

Ohio State Cover

78.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around OSU -10.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OSU)

TEX By 1-6 points

10.1%

TEX By 7-13 points

6.6%

OSU By 1-6 points

14.8%

OSU By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
26.73
TEXAS
37.6
OHIO STATE
Simulated Score
31
TEXAS
34
OHIO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Ohio State Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Ohio State Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Ohio State (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -10.9
C
Sim Ohio State (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 64.3
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 65.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 12, 2026 OSU @ TEX 23 - 24
Aug 30, 2025 TEX @ OSU 7 - 14
Jan 10, 2025 OSU @ TEX 28 - 14
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +32.8% more
Ohio State: 156.2 vs Texas: 117.6
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +11.0% more
Ohio State: 0.5 vs Texas: 0.4
Turnovers (L5) +46.4% more
Texas: 1.7 vs Ohio State: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TEX Score 26.7 7
OSU Score 37.6 14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.1 / 21.1 11.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 156.2 / 117.6 77.0 / 166.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.25 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 417.8 / 394.2 203.0 / 336.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 1.7 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
61%MONEY39%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
54%MONEY46%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 20.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
OSU
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 29.6 ATS +/-: +1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 20.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
OSU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 29.6 ATS +/-: +1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -9.8
OSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OSU
TEX
OSU
TEX
ML
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
100% 5-0
50% 2-2
ATS
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
50% 2-2
TTL
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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