Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Georgia St @ Ole Miss GAST @ MISS

GEORGIA STATE

GEORGIA STGAST

0-0  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Aug 30 • 7:45 PM ET
Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
View Odds Details →

OLE MISS

OLE MISSMISS

0-0  |  Home

63
Key Game
Jabriel Rhodes-Nelson
KEY GAME

Jabriel Rhodes-Nelson

#1 | Defensive End
@
Oscar Bird
KEY GAME

Oscar Bird

#33 | Punter
Player
Jabriel Rhodes-Nelson None-None
Oscar Bird None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
GEORGIA ST
100%
📊
OLE MISS
0%
GEORGIA ST --
OLE MISS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
71.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.4
OLE MISS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.4 points (Ole Miss)
Georgia StGAST (-3.5) 0 Ole MissMISS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Georgia St Cover

9.4%

Ole Miss Cover

90.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MISS -18.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MISS)

GAST By 1-6 points

5.1%

GAST By 7-13 points

2.6%

MISS By 1-6 points

9.7%

MISS By 7-13 points

16.6%

AI Model Projected Score
26.7
GEORGIA STATE
45.09
OLE MISS
Simulated Score
13
GEORGIA STATE
45
OLE MISS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Ole Miss Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Ole Miss Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Ole Miss (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -18.4
C
Sim Ole Miss (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -32.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 71.8
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2025 GAST @ MISS 7 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +19.0% more
Ole Miss: 497.2 vs Georgia State: 417.7
First Downs (L5) +11.2% more
Ole Miss: 23.8 vs Georgia State: 21.4
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +8.0% more
Ole Miss: 0.4 vs Georgia State: 0.4
Turnovers (L5) +60.8% more
Georgia State: 2.6 vs Ole Miss: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GAST Score 26.7 7
MISS Score 45.1 63
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.8 / 21.4 34.0 / 10.0
Rushing Yards 167.8 / 158.9 295.0 / 191.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.62 / 0.13
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 497.2 / 417.7 695.0 / 260.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 2.6 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
20%MONEY80%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GAST Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 20.4 ATS +/-: +17.6
MISS
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -6.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GAST Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 20.4 ATS +/-: +17.6
MISS
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -6.1
⚖️ Over/Under
GAST
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.9
MISS
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +8.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MISS
GAST
MISS
GAST
ML
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
100% 4-0
80% 4-1
ATS
50% 2-2
0% 0-5
50% 2-2
80% 4-1
TTL
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Bryce Young Returns to Tuscaloosa as ESPN College GameDay Guest …
yahoo 5 hours, 44 minutes ago
Pete Golding Emphasizes Execution Over Scheme Change as Ole Miss…
si 1 day ago
Florida Gators Seek Redemption After Blowout Loss, Turn Focus to…
yourvalley_net 1 day, 12 hours ago
Missouri Freshman Lineman Johnnie DJ Jones Awaits Heart Transpla…
news29 1 day, 17 hours ago
Jadan Baugh's 13-Yard Dud vs Missouri Sparks Apology Tour and Ga…
si 2 days, 23 hours ago