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IOWA STATE

IOWA STATEISU

0-0  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sat, Aug 23 • 12:00 PM ET
Aviva Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS STATE

KANSAS STKSU

0-0  |  Home

21
Key Game
Kyle Konrardy
KEY GAME

Kyle Konrardy

#97 | Place kicker
@
Simon McClannan
KEY GAME

Simon McClannan

#8 | Punter
Player
Kyle Konrardy None-None
Simon McClannan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
IOWA STATE
0%
📊
KANSAS ST
100%
IOWA STATE --
KANSAS ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
59.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.3
IOWA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.3 points (Iowa State)
Iowa StateISU (-3.5) 0 Kansas StKSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Iowa State Cover

69.8%

Kansas St Cover

30.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ISU -7.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ISU)

ISU By 1-6 points

16.4%

ISU By 7-13 points

19.4%

KSU By 1-6 points

12.7%

KSU By 7-13 points

9.4%

AI Model Projected Score
33.24
IOWA STATE
25.99
KANSAS STATE
Simulated Score
24
IOWA STATE
27
KANSAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Iowa State Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Kansas St Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Iowa State (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.3
B
Sim Kansas St (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 59.2
B
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 23, 2025 ISU @ KSU 24 - 21
Nov 30, 2024 KSU @ ISU 21 - 29
Nov 25, 2023 ISU @ KSU 42 - 35
Oct 8, 2022 KSU @ ISU 10 - 9
Oct 16, 2021 ISU @ KSU 33 - 20
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +13.1% more
Iowa State: 23.3 vs Kansas State: 20.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +62.7% more
Kansas State: 237.1 vs Iowa State: 145.7
Turnovers (L5) +21.1% more
Kansas State: 1.3 vs Iowa State: 1.1
Total Yards (L5) +15.1% more
Kansas State: 446.1 vs Iowa State: 387.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ISU Score 33.2 24
KSU Score 26.0 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.3 / 23.3 13.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 237.1 / 145.7 110.0 / 130.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.38 / 0.21
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 446.1 / 387.7 383.0 / 313.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.1 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
39%MONEY61%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
28%MONEY72%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
69%MONEY31%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ISU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 12.4 ATS +/-: +5.6
KSU Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 25.3 ATS +/-: +4.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ISU
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 12.4 ATS +/-: +5.6
KSU
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 25.3 ATS +/-: +4.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ISU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +7.1
KSU
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KSU
ISU
KSU
ISU
ML
75% 3-1
100% 5-0
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
ATS
75% 3-1
75% 3-1-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2-1
TTL
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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