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ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

64-65  |  Road

6
FINAL
Fri, Aug 22 • 7:35 PM ET
George M. Steinbrenner Field
View Odds Details →

TAMPA BAY

RAYSTB

61-67  |  Home

10
Probable Pitchers
Everson Pereira
STARTING PITCHER

Everson Pereira

#21 | Right Field
@
Bryan Baker
STARTING PITCHER

Bryan Baker

#47 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Everson Pereira None-None -- -- -- --
Bryan Baker None-None 4.17 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 4.17
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
52%
📊
RAYS
48%
CARDINALS --
RAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 37%
Under 0 63%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (St. Louis)
CardinalsSTL (-3.5) 0 RaysTB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

65.5%

Rays Cover

34.5%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around STL -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)

STL By 1-2 runs

19.7%

STL By 3-4 runs

17.7%

TB By 1-2 runs

14.7%

TB By 3-4 runs

8.9%

AI Model Projected Score
4.22
ST. LOUIS
2.63
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
4
ST. LOUIS
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Cardinals Loss
52% Win Prob
D
Sim Rays Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Cardinals (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.6
B
Sim Rays (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.9
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 29, 2026 TB @ STL 11 - 7
Mar 28, 2026 TB @ STL 5 - 6
Mar 26, 2026 TB @ STL 7 - 9
Aug 24, 2025 STL @ TB 2 - 7
Aug 22, 2025 STL @ TB 6 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis STL
vs
Tampa Bay TB
162
Games Played
162
4.44
Runs / Game
▲ 4.54
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .258
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .326
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.691
OPS
▲ .728
167
Home Runs
▲ 169
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +35.2% more
St. Louis: 4.8 vs Tampa Bay: 3.1
Home Runs (L5) +16.0% more
St. Louis: 0.9 vs Tampa Bay: 0.7
Total Bases (L5) +11.8% more
St. Louis: 12.9 vs Tampa Bay: 11.4
Hits (L5) +9.6% more
St. Louis: 8.8 vs Tampa Bay: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 4.2 6
TB Score 2.6 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.1 / 0.8 0.0 / 1.0
Hits 8.0 / 8.8 16.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.7 / 0.9 4.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 10.3 / 8.8 6.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 11.4 / 12.9 31.0 / 16.0
Walks 3.1 / 4.8 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
36%MONEY64%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
27%MONEY73%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
TB Advantage
101-64-0 (61.2%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
TB
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
STL
TB
STL
ML
58% 95-68
53% 85-74
58% 95-68
52% 84-77
ATS
60% 97-66
56% 89-70
55% 90-73
53% 85-76
TTL
47% 73-81-9
46% 68-81-10
51% 78-75-10
50% 76-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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