Home / NFL Projections NFL / Ravens @ Commanders BAL @ WSH

BALTIMORE

RAVENSBAL

2-0  |  Road

30
FINAL
Sat, Aug 23 • 12:00 PM ET
Northwest Stadium
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

COMMANDERSWSH

0-2  |  Home

3
Key Game
Chris Moore
KEY GAME

Chris Moore

#17 | Wide Receiver
@
Tress Way
KEY GAME

Tress Way

#10 | Punter
Player
Chris Moore None-None
Tress Way None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RAVENS
50%
📊
COMMANDERS
50%
RAVENS --
COMMANDERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
63.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.3
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.3 points (Baltimore)
RavensBAL (-3.5) 0 CommandersWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ravens Cover

62.1%

Commanders Cover

37.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around BAL -4.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)

BAL By 1-6 points

16.9%

BAL By 7-13 points

18.2%

WSH By 1-6 points

14.6%

WSH By 7-13 points

11.8%

AI Model Projected Score
34.01
BALTIMORE
29.69
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
20
BALTIMORE
27
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Ravens Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Commanders Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Ravens (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.3
D
Sim Commanders (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 63.7
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 28, 2026 WSH @ BAL 3 - 41
Aug 23, 2025 BAL @ WSH 30 - 3
Oct 13, 2024 WSH @ BAL 23 - 30
Oct 4, 2020 BAL @ WSH 31 - 17
Oct 9, 2016 WSH @ BAL 16 - 10
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +39.4% more
Baltimore: 240.1 vs Washington: 145.5
Yards Per Play (L5) +14.2% more
Baltimore: 6.6 vs Washington: 5.7
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +11.0% more
Baltimore: 0.6 vs Washington: 0.4
Total Yards (L5) +10.4% more
Baltimore: 436.7 vs Washington: 391.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAL Score 34.0 30
WSH Score 29.7 3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
WSH
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -8.5 ATS +/-: -2.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
WSH Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.5 ATS +/-: -2.6
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.0
WSH
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +6.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
BAL
WSH
BAL
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
ATS
25% 1-3
33% 1-2-1
75% 3-1
100% 3-0-1
TTL
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
0% 0-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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