Home / NFL Projections NFL / Broncos @ Saints DEN @ NO

DENVER

BRONCOSDEN

2-0  |  Road

28
FINAL
Sat, Aug 23 • 1:00 PM ET
Caesars Superdome
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

SAINTSNO

0-1-1  |  Home

19
Key Game
Jeremy Crawshaw
KEY GAME

Jeremy Crawshaw

#16 | Punter
@
Charlie Smyth
KEY GAME

Charlie Smyth

#39 | Place kicker
Player
Jeremy Crawshaw None-None
Charlie Smyth None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BRONCOS
50%
📊
SAINTS
50%
BRONCOS --
SAINTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
32.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.9
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.8 points (Denver)
BroncosDEN (-3.5) 0 SaintsNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Broncos Cover

78.1%

Saints Cover

21.9%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around DEN -10.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)

DEN By 1-6 points

14.8%

DEN By 7-13 points

19.7%

NO By 1-6 points

10.1%

NO By 7-13 points

6.7%

AI Model Projected Score
21.88
DENVER
11.03
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
20
DENVER
24
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Broncos Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Saints Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Broncos (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -10.9
D
Sim Saints (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 32.9
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 23, 2025 DEN @ NO 28 - 19
Oct 17, 2024 DEN @ NO 33 - 10
Nov 29, 2020 NO @ DEN 31 - 3
Nov 13, 2016 DEN @ NO 25 - 23
Oct 28, 2012 NO @ DEN 14 - 34
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +30.9% more
Denver: 22.3 vs New Orleans: 15.4
Net Passing Yards (L5) +28.1% more
Denver: 252.2 vs New Orleans: 181.3
Total Yards (L5) +27.5% more
Denver: 375.0 vs New Orleans: 272.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +26.1% more
Denver: 122.8 vs New Orleans: 90.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 21.9 28
NO Score 11.0 19
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
NO
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -5.8 ATS +/-: -3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.0 ATS +/-: -4.6
NO
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.8 ATS +/-: -3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -3.4
NO
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +11.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
DEN
NO
DEN
ML
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
ATS
0% 0-4
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
TTL
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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