Home / NFL Projections NFL / Vikings @ Titans MIN @ TEN

MINNESOTA

VIKINGSMIN

1-1  |  Road

13
FINAL
Fri, Aug 22 • 8:00 PM ET
Nissan Stadium
View Odds Details →

TENNESSEE

TITANSTEN

1-1  |  Home

23
Key Game
Johnny Hekker
KEY GAME

Johnny Hekker

#5 | Punter
@
Joey Slye
KEY GAME

Joey Slye

#6 | Place kicker
Player
Johnny Hekker None-None
Joey Slye None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
VIKINGS
50%
📊
TITANS
50%
VIKINGS --
TITANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
34.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
MINNESOTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Minnesota)
VikingsMIN (-3.5) 0 TitansTEN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Vikings Cover

52.6%

Titans Cover

47.4%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MIN -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIN)

MIN By 1-6 points

16.7%

MIN By 7-13 points

16.1%

TEN By 1-6 points

16.2%

TEN By 7-13 points

14.7%

AI Model Projected Score
17.92
MINNESOTA
17
TENNESSEE
Simulated Score
20
MINNESOTA
24
TENNESSEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Vikings Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Titans Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Vikings (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -0.9
D
Sim Titans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 34.9
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 22, 2025 MIN @ TEN 13 - 23
Nov 17, 2024 MIN @ TEN 23 - 13
Sep 27, 2020 TEN @ MIN 31 - 30
Sep 11, 2016 MIN @ TEN 25 - 16
Oct 7, 2012 TEN @ MIN 7 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +9.8% more
Minnesota: 236.8 vs Tennessee: 213.5
Turnovers (L5) +176.0% more
Tennessee: 2.3 vs Minnesota: 0.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
Tennessee: 0.5 vs Minnesota: 0.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +9.9% more
Tennessee: 109.3 vs Minnesota: 99.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 17.9 13
TEN Score 17.0 23
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +7.0
TEN
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +7.0
TEN
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -9.0
TEN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEN
MIN
TEN
MIN
ML
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
ATS
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
TTL
25% 1-3
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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