Home / NFL Projections NFL / Bears @ Chiefs CHI @ KC

CHICAGO

BEARSCHI

1-0-1  |  Road

29
FINAL
Fri, Aug 22 • 8:20 PM ET
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

CHIEFSKC

0-2  |  Home

27
Key Game
Tory Taylor
KEY GAME

Tory Taylor

#19 | Punter
@
Matt Araiza
KEY GAME

Matt Araiza

#14 | Punter
Player
Tory Taylor None-None
Matt Araiza None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
50%
📊
CHIEFS
50%
BEARS --
CHIEFS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
34.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.5
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.5 points (Kansas City)
BearsCHI (-3.5) 0 ChiefsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

37.5%

Chiefs Cover

62.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around KC -4.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

CHI By 1-6 points

14.5%

CHI By 7-13 points

11.7%

KC By 1-6 points

16.9%

KC By 7-13 points

18.3%

AI Model Projected Score
15.17
CHICAGO
19.64
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
17
CHICAGO
28
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Chiefs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Chiefs Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Chiefs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.5
D
Sim Chiefs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 34.8
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 45.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 22, 2025 CHI @ KC 29 - 27
Sep 24, 2023 CHI @ KC 10 - 41
Dec 22, 2019 KC @ CHI 26 - 3
Oct 11, 2015 CHI @ KC 18 - 17
Dec 4, 2011 KC @ CHI 10 - 3
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +27.6% more
Kansas City: 19.4 vs Chicago: 15.2
Net Passing Yards (L5) +14.3% more
Kansas City: 200.0 vs Chicago: 174.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +13.0% more
Kansas City: 0.4 vs Chicago: 0.3
Yards Per Play (L5) +11.5% more
Kansas City: 4.9 vs Chicago: 4.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHI Score 15.2 29
KC Score 19.6 27
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHI
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +9.9
KC Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHI Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +9.9
KC
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
CHI
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -0.5
KC
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
CHI
KC
CHI
ML
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
ATS
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
100% 4-0
TTL
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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