NEW YORK
METSNYM
67-59 | Road
3
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
51-75 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Sean Manaea
#59 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Clayton Beeter
#39 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Manaea | None-None | 5.15 | -- | 4.2 | 8 |
| Clayton Beeter | None-None | 7.71 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.15 Ldr
ERA
7.71
--
WHIP
--
4.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
8 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
METS
63%
NATIONALS
37%
METS
--
NATIONALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
78%
Under 0
22%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.1
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.1 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYM -2.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
NYM By 1-2 runs
19.5%
NYM By 3-4 runs
18.6%
WSH By 1-2 runs
13.3%
WSH By 3-4 runs
7.6%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
5.22
NEW YORK
Washington
3.13
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Washington
5
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mets
Loss
63% Win Prob
C
Sim
Nationals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mets (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.1
D
Sim
Nationals (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.4
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
NYM @ WSH
4 - 6
Sep 26, 2026
NYM @ WSH
7 - 1
Sep 25, 2026
NYM @ WSH
6 - 7
Aug 16, 2026
WSH @ NYM
3 - 4
Aug 15, 2026
WSH @ NYM
4 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
Washington
WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲
5.07
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.246
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.321
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.423
.705
OPS
▲
.744
204
Home Runs
▲
210
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+63.2% more
New York: 1.9
vs
Washington: 0.7
Total Bases (L5)
+30.7% more
New York: 18.7
vs
Washington: 13.0
Hits (L5)
+25.4% more
New York: 10.2
vs
Washington: 7.6
Strikeouts (L5)
+21.4% more
New York: 8.0
vs
Washington: 6.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
5.2
3
WSH Score
3.1
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.6 / 10.2
9.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 1.9
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
6.3 / 8.0
11.0 / 14.0
Total Bases
13.0 / 18.7
13.0 / 13.0
Walks
3.7 / 2.9
5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
NYM
WSH
NYM
ML
57%
92-69
50%
79-80
54%
87-74
48%
76-83
ATS
58%
93-68
58%
93-66
57%
91-70
49%
78-81
TTL
50%
77-78-6
55%
80-66-13
42%
65-90-6
51%
74-72-13
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