Home / MLB Projections MLB / Giants @ Padres SF @ SD

SAN FRANCISCO

GIANTSSF

61-66  |  Road

4
FINAL
Thu, Aug 21 • 4:10 PM ET
Petco Park
View Odds Details →

SAN DIEGO

PADRESSD

71-56  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Christian Koss
STARTING PITCHER

Christian Koss

#50 | Shortstop
@
Mason Miller
STARTING PITCHER

Mason Miller

#22 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Christian Koss None-None -- -- -- --
Mason Miller None-None 3.50 -- 0.2 1
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 3.50
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 0.2
-- K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
GIANTS
42%
📊
PADRES
58%
GIANTS --
PADRES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.3
SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.3 points (San Diego)
GiantsSF (-3.5) 0 PadresSD (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Giants Cover

28.1%

Padres Cover

71.9%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around SD -2.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SD)

SF By 1-2 runs

12.6%

SF By 3-4 runs

7.0%

SD By 1-2 runs

19.3%

SD By 3-4 runs

18.9%

AI Model Projected Score
3.17
SAN FRANCISCO
5.49
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
4
SAN FRANCISCO
5
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Padres Win
58% Win Prob
D
Sim Padres Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Padres (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.3
C
Sim Padres (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.7
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 SD @ SF 6 - 4
Sep 12, 2026 SD @ SF 7 - 6
Sep 11, 2026 SD @ SF 7 - 5
Aug 2, 2026 SF @ SD 4 - 5
Aug 1, 2026 SF @ SD 5 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
San Francisco SF
vs
San Diego SD
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.13
Runs / Game
▲ 6.00
.245
Avg (AVG)
▲ .328
.306
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .362
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .563
.706
OPS
▲ .925
178 ▲
Home Runs
4
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5) +48.1% more
San Diego: 16.4 vs San Francisco: 11.1
Hits (L5) +47.6% more
San Diego: 8.8 vs San Francisco: 5.9
Runs per Game (Season) +45.3% more
San Diego: 6.0 vs San Francisco: 4.1
Home Runs (L5) +34.4% more
San Diego: 1.7 vs San Francisco: 1.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SF Score 3.2 4
SD Score 5.5 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 1.4 1.0 / 2.0
Hits 8.8 / 5.9 10.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.7 / 1.3 0.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 8.8 / 7.7 11.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 16.4 / 11.1 13.0 / 17.0
Walks 3.3 / 2.5 4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
43%MONEY57%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SF
65-97-0 (40.1%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
94-74-0 (56.0%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SF
(51.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-:
SD Advantage
(57.1%)
Margin: 0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
SF
76-73-13
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0% Total +/-: +0.6
SD
78-85-5
O: 47.9% / U: 52.2% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SD
SF
SD
SF
ML
51% 85-83
49% 79-81
51% 85-82
53% 85-75
ATS
54% 91-77
62% 100-60
55% 92-75
52% 83-77
TTL
51% 82-80-6
55% 82-68-10
54% 86-74-6
46% 68-81-11
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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