ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
63-65 | Road
7
TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
61-66 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Matt Svanson
#49 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Englert
#59 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Svanson | None-None | 2.11 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Mason Englert | None-None | 4.19 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.11 Ldr
ERA
4.19
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
51%
RAYS
49%
CARDINALS
--
RAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
33%
Under 0
67%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around STL -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
STL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
STL By 3-4 runs
17.3%
TB By 1-2 runs
15.2%
TB By 3-4 runs
9.4%
AI Model Projected Score
St. Louis
4
ST. LOUIS
Tampa Bay
2.59
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
St. Louis
3
ST. LOUIS
Tampa Bay
5
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals
Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rays
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
C
Sim
Rays (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 29, 2026
TB @ STL
11 - 7
Mar 28, 2026
TB @ STL
5 - 6
Mar 26, 2026
TB @ STL
7 - 9
Aug 24, 2025
STL @ TB
2 - 7
Aug 22, 2025
STL @ TB
6 - 10
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis
STL
vs
Tampa Bay
TB
162
Games Played
162
4.44
Runs / Game
▲
4.54
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.258
.313
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.378
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.691
OPS
▲
.728
167
Home Runs
▲
169
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+48.2% more
St. Louis: 1.1
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.6
Walks (L5)
+43.3% more
St. Louis: 4.7
vs
Tampa Bay: 2.7
Home Runs (L5)
+25.0% more
St. Louis: 0.9
vs
Tampa Bay: 0.6
Hits (L5)
+15.5% more
St. Louis: 8.3
vs
Tampa Bay: 7.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STL Score
4.0
7
TB Score
2.6
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 1.1
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.0 / 8.3
10.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 0.9
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
11.5 / 8.2
8.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
10.1 / 11.9
14.0 / 15.0
Walks
2.7 / 4.7
4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
TB
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
STL
TB
STL
ML
58%
95-68
53%
85-74
58%
95-68
52%
84-77
ATS
60%
97-66
56%
89-70
55%
90-73
53%
85-76
TTL
47%
73-81-9
46%
68-81-10
51%
78-75-10
50%
76-75-10
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