NEW YORK
METSNYM
67-58 | Road
4
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
50-75 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kodai Senga
#34 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Clayton Beeter
#39 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kodai Senga | None-None | 2.58 | -- | 5.0 | 4 |
| Clayton Beeter | None-None | 8.44 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.58 Ldr
ERA
8.44
--
WHIP
--
5.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
4 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
METS
63%
NATIONALS
37%
METS
--
NATIONALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
44%
Under 0
56%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.6
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.6 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around NYM -3.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)
NYM By 1-2 runs
17.2%
NYM By 3-4 runs
19.7%
WSH By 1-2 runs
8.8%
WSH By 3-4 runs
4.2%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
6.08
NEW YORK
Washington
2.46
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mets
Loss
63% Win Prob
C
Sim
Nationals
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Mets (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.6
D
Sim
Nationals (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 27, 2026
NYM @ WSH
4 - 6
Sep 26, 2026
NYM @ WSH
7 - 1
Sep 25, 2026
NYM @ WSH
6 - 7
Aug 16, 2026
WSH @ NYM
3 - 4
Aug 15, 2026
WSH @ NYM
4 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
Washington
WSH
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲
5.07
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.246
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.321
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.423
.705
OPS
▲
.744
204
Home Runs
▲
210
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+76.1% more
New York: 2.3
vs
Washington: 0.6
Total Bases (L5)
+40.9% more
New York: 21.1
vs
Washington: 12.5
Hits (L5)
+30.0% more
New York: 11.3
vs
Washington: 7.9
Strikeouts (L5)
+27.0% more
New York: 9.4
vs
Washington: 6.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
6.1
4
WSH Score
2.5
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.2
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.9 / 11.3
7.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 2.3
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.9 / 9.4
5.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
12.5 / 21.1
14.0 / 14.0
Walks
4.0 / 2.8
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
WSH
Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
NYM
WSH
NYM
ML
57%
92-69
50%
79-80
54%
87-74
48%
76-83
ATS
58%
93-68
58%
93-66
57%
91-70
49%
78-81
TTL
50%
77-78-6
55%
80-66-13
42%
65-90-6
51%
74-72-13
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